After a sluggish start to the 2025 NRL season, critics have questioned whether the Penrith Panthers’ dynasty has finally hit its wall. But history shows one clear truth—Penrith doesn’t stay down for long.
The Panthers, reigning over a golden era with three consecutive premierships from 2021 to 2023, have proven time and again their resilience under pressure. Despite early losses this season and the departure of key players, the core leadership—anchored by Nathan Cleary and Isaah Yeo—remains intact, and their depth continues to show promise.
In 2019, Penrith languished near the bottom of the ladder before rebuilding into a powerhouse within a season. Coach Ivan Cleary has mastered the art of long campaigns, and few teams adapt mid-season as effectively as Penrith.
What separates Penrith is not just talent, but culture. Their system breeds confidence, unity, and belief—a combination that historically triggers late-season surges. With 14 rounds remaining, the path to the finals is wide open.
The Panthers know how to grind, reset, and climb. Write them off at your peril—this club has defied odds before, and their history suggests they’ll do it again. Penrith is built for the long haul—and a return to finals footy isn’t just possible, it’s probable.
If there’s one team that can go from the bottom to finals, it’s the Panthers. The climb will be steep, but they’ve scaled bigger mountains before. Write them off at your peril—the season isn’t over, and the Panthers aren’t done.
Penrith must defy more than two decades of history to make finals, with data showing no side this century has climbed from last place this late in a season to make the NRL’s top eight.
Saturday’s loss to Manly has left the four-time defending premiers on the bottom of the table, with coach Ivan Cleary insisting ladder position does not matter until July.
But history does suggest otherwise.
Since the ARL introduced a top-eight finals system in 1995, only Brisbane in 1999 have been placed last beyond round eight to have recovered to make the finals.
In the 30 seasons since, 15 teams ranked last after eight rounds have finished with the wooden spoon, while another six have run second-last.
Penrith’s best hope from this century could come from the Canberra team of 2002, who were last on the ladder after seven rounds before being knocked out in the first week of finals.
But even that side had a far easier path, as part of a smaller 14-team competition where Canterbury were effectively disqualified for salary-cap breaches.
Manly’s 2015 team also bear some similarities, ranked last after eight rounds before recovering to finish ninth and running out of puff late in the year.
“The statistics say it would be tough to do,” Geoff Toovey, who coached that Manly 2015 team, told AAP.
“But it’s not impossible.
“If you’re in a team and it’s losing, it’s very hard to turn it around.
“But once you do, and you start winning, and you’re on that winning streak, then it’s hard to stop that as well.”
Toovey has some experience with what Penrith are going through as both a coach and a player.
His 2015 Sea Eagles started 2-6 like Penrith, before a post-Origin burst put them on the cusp of the finals.
In 1998 he was also part of a Manly team that started the season slow after three straight grand finals, before recovering to be knocked out in week one.
“To be minor premiers and premiers for so long, mentally and physically you have to be right on your game,” Toovey said.
“So maybe that’s taken its toll after four years.
“You are the champions. Everyone’s after you. And to maintain that level of play that you need to sustain a winning culture is very difficult.”
Penrith’s situation is deepened by the fact they will lose their biggest names to State of Origin come round 12.
And while they have byes before the other Origins, players will likely need to back up days after playing for NSW.
Sunday’s Magic Round clash with Brisbane now looms as crucial, with the Panthers needing to bank points immediately.
Even if they do reach finals, a question remains over how much gas will be in the tank for a fifth straight title.
“Don’t write them off, because if they come home on a roll they will be very hard to stop,” Toovey said.