We all know it’s nearly impossible to win a premiership from outside the top four.
Of the 117 title winners since 1908, 115 of them have done so after finishing in the first four by the end of the regular season.
Only Canterbury from sixth place in 1995, and Brisbane from fifth in 1993 have managed the near impossible.
History has shown it’s just too hard to keep that winning run going when you’re up against elite teams in must-win finals, which makes this year’s top-four race as critical as ever.
The Warriors have had a great resurgence to sit fourth, and are four competition points clear of the Broncos in fifth place. They’ve got a great run home, too, where they play just one top-four side (Canterbury) and one top-eight rival (the Dolphins).
But to lose halfback Luke Metcalf on top of forward Mitch Barnett going down with an ACL rupture is just too much, and I think they’ll struggle to keep Brisbane at bay.
The Broncos have a good run home, but do play the Storm twice after facing the Bulldogs on Friday night. I think that round 27 game against Melbourne will decide whether they finish top four and, historically, stay in with a premiership shot.
Penrith will basically start their finals campaign in mid-August. I can’t see them making the top four even though they’re one competition point behind the Broncos. Their run from round 24 to 26, where they face Melbourne, Canberra and Canterbury, is just too tough. Then they’ll likely be playing sudden death semi-finals as well.
The toll of their premiership-winning run has shown at times this year with Nathan Cleary’s groin injury and Brian To’o’s different soft tissue issues.
And then you think about Isaah Yeo, he’s played basically every minute of more than 100 games in the past four years alone. It has to take a toll on even the greatest players.
For mine, given that tough run comes against in-form teams after another gruelling Origin series, it’s just too much for Penrith.
I think the top three – Raiders, Bulldogs and Storm – stays the same, and I think the Roosters’ roll on will have them finishing in the top eight as well. But as for the top four, I can’t see the Warriors hanging on or Penrith sneaking in there. That spot is Brisbane’s for the taking.
Singing and kicking in the rain
Brisbane have won three on the trot and Friday’s clash with Canterbury where neither side has their Origin players is their chance to build some real momentum.
Sydney’s cyclonic rain is meant to ease up by kick-off, but it will still be a greasy, slippery, heavy track at Accor Stadium. And wet weather footy always narrows the margin between two sides.
Wet weather footy will emphasise the basics: you get out of dummy half, you kick long, you kick often, you don’t give away penalties and you defend strongly.
Brisbane’s advantage here is Adam Reynolds. The little master kicked Canterbury out of the game the last time these two teams played in the wet and his experience and control in these conditions is something the Bulldogs just can’t match.