Great News: The Reds are keeping an eye on these five non-tendered batters this winter.
Every year, MLB’s non-tender deadline allows clubs to let players under team control to leave early, whether it’s owing to an increasing price tag in arbitration or a necessity for more space on the team’s 40-man roster. The Dodgers parted ways with Cody Bellinger last summer, making him one of the most noteworthy non-tenders in recent memory. Of course, Bellinger went on to re-sign with the Cubs and have a resurgence season, slashing.307/.356/.525 with 26 home runs and finishing top-10 in NL MVP vote. Bellinger’s outstanding season propelled him to the No. 2 spot on MLBTR’s Top 50 free agents list this offseason, where we predicted him to sign a 12-year, $264 million contract.
A player of Bellinger’s caliber, a two-time All-Star with MVP and Rookie of the Year accolades, going undrafted is extremely rare, and there’s little reason to expect that any of this offseason’s undrafted players will reach such levels in 2024. Having said that, lots of players get non-tendered and go on to have successful careers: Kyle Schwarber, Jeimer Candelario, Kevin Gausman, and Matt Strahm are just a few examples of players who have found success as big-league regulars after being non-tendered.
With an abnormally weak class of free agency hitters on the market this winter, teams will be more motivated than ever to find a diamond in the rough in quest of offensive upgrades. Let’s take a look at five batters who became available for free agency after last week’s non-tender deadline and could be worth keeping an eye on in the coming offseason. Players are listed alphabetically, with their 2024 season age in parenthesis.
Mike Ford (31)
Ford made his MLB debut with the Yankees in 2019. He hit exceptionally well in a part-time role, slashing .259/.350/.559 (134 wRC+) with 12 homers in just 163 trips to the plate. Despite that strong performance, Ford would not clear 100 plate appearances in a season again until 2022, when he struggled through 50 games at the big league level while bouncing between the Braves, Angels, Mariners, and Giants. In 149 trips to the plate between the aforementioned four clubs, Ford hit a paltry .206/.302/.313 (81 wRC+). He received another big league opportunity in Seattle this season, however, and managed to make the most of it with a solid rebound campaign.
Upon being called up in early June, Ford played on a semi-regular basis with a solid .228/.323/.475 slash line with 16 home runs in 251 trips to the plate. Overall, that performance was good for a well above-average wRC+ of 123. Despite his successful season, the Mariners non-tendered Ford rather than offer him an arbitration-level contract that MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projected would be worth $1.5M. Still, Ford figures to be a cheap source of optionable left-handed power for a club with an opening at either first base or DH, and could prove to be a solid pickup for teams looking to boost their offense in 2024 who can afford to offer him at-bats.
Kyle Lewis (28)
After being selected eleventh-overall by the Mariners in the 2016 draft, Lewis began his big league career with a bang by slashing .268/.293/.592 with six home runs during an 18-game cup of coffee towards the end of the 2019 season. The strong initial performance earned Lewis an everyday role in center field during the shortened 2020 season. It was an opportunity Lewis made the most of as he slashed .262/.364/.437 (127 wRC+) while playing quality defense in center en route to an AL Rookie of the Year award.
Unfortunately, since has gone off the rails for Lewis since then. Knee injuries, a concussion, and illness have sidelined him much of the time since then, and he’s hit a paltry .203/.281/.342 in 70 MLB games when he has been able to take the field. That being said, Lewis hit exceptionally well at the Triple-A level for the Diamondbacks this year, with a .371/.457/.641 slash line in 293 trips to the plate. That performance wasn’t enough to convince Arizona to spend a projected $1.61M on Lewis’s services in arbitration this year, but it’s certainly possible it signals that Lewis could return to being an above-average regular in the big leagues if he can stay healthy long enough to find an extended opportunity.
Nick Senzel (29)
Senzel was the second overall pick in the 2016 draft and made his big league debut with the Reds back in 2019. He performed acceptably in his rookie season, adjusting on the fly to become the club’s regular center fielder after spending his entire professional career prior to 2019 on the infield dirt. Still, his bat left something to be desired as he slashed just .256/.315/.427, good for a wRC+ of 87. Senzel struggled to stay healthy following the 2019 campaign, however, appearing in just 59 games over the next two seasons. He returned to semi-regular playing time in 2021 but struggled badly at the plate with a weak slash line of just .231/.296/.306 in 420 trips to the plate.
Though his offense improved slightly in 2023 as he slashed .236/.297/.399 with 13 home runs in 330 plate appearances as he split time between second base, third base, and all three outfield spots, that performance did not convince the Reds to tender him a contract worth a projected $3M this offseason. Senzel’s non-tender was hardly a surprise given Cincinnati’s excess of positional talent and his recent struggles. That said, it’s easy to see Senzel being a valuable piece of a club’s bench mix in 2024 given his versatility and career .287/.334/.460 slash line against southpaws and it’s certainly feasible that a player of his prospect pedigree could take a step forward if allotted regular playing time.
Jacob Stallings (34)
By far the oldest player on this list, Stallings is a veteran of eight MLB seasons and first joined the Pirates organization as a seventh-round pick all the way back in 2012. After struggling to catch on in a regular role early in his career, Stallings became the regular catcher in Pittsburgh during the 2019 season and spent the next three years as a quality regular behind the plate, slashing a decent .251/.331/.374 (89 wRC+) while playing excellent defense behind the plate which earned him a Gold Glove award in 2021. Unfortunately, Stallings’s career took a turn for the worse upon being traded to Miami. Over the past two seasons, he’s slashed just .210/.287/.290 in 203 games as his defensive metrics have collapsed behind the plate. Those struggles made it an easy decision for the Marlins to non-tender Stallings rather than offer him a contract that is projected to be worth $3.6M for the 2024 season.
Stallings is perhaps the least likely on this list to be a productive regular in 2024. After all, he’s been well below average on both sides of the ball the past two seasons and is entering his mid-thirties. That being said, He’s just two seasons removed from a 2.5 fWAR campaign that saw him post slightly better offensive numbers than the average catcher while being among the strongest defenders behind the plate in the league. Given the constant need for catching depth around the game, it seems likely Stallings will be afforded plenty of opportunity to recapture his old form as a solid two-way catcher, and he’d only need to find success at one or the other to be a solid backup option.
Juan Yepez (26)
Yepez, perhaps the most unexpected entrant on this list, was released by the Cardinals last week despite being eligible for arbitration. Yepez made his major league debut as a 24-year-old during the 2022 season and made an immediate impact. Despite being blocked at his natural position of first base by Paul Goldschmidt, Yepez split time between DH and all four corner spots, slashing.253/.296/.447 with 12 home runs in 274 plate appearances. Unfortunately, Yepez underperformed in his sophomore season, slashing.183/.246/.300 in 65 major league plate appearances. His stay in Triple-A was not much better, as he compiled a.255/.323/.414 slash line.
While the Cardinals released Yepez to make place on the 40-man roster, it’s worth mentioning that Yepez was stymied by an already-crowded Cardinals outfield mix at the big league level. Given his limited big league experience to this point, his youth, and a career.273/.349/.515 slash line at Triple-A, Yepez could be the latest late-career breakout candidate to emerge from St. Louis, following in the footsteps of Adolis Garcia, Luke Voit, and Patrick Wisdom.
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