The Braves confirmed the dreaded news we were all anticipating on Saturday morning: Spencer Strider had undergone surgery in his right elbow to repair a damaged UCL. He will miss the remainder of the season, a blow that the Braves will have to overcome and maneuver over the next 150 games and (presumably) postseason.
If there is an area of real concern in the Braves’ start to the 2024 season, it’s the starting rotation. To be blunt, it has downright bad in a small two-week sample, and that includes a couple of Strider starts. After Sunday, Atlanta’s starters owned a 5.50 ERA. The club’s FIP (4.07) and xFIP (3.97) are signs that better days are on the horizon, but until that time arrives, a heavy burden has been placed on the lineup and bullpen.
No one in baseball can replace Spencer Strider. There have been cries from segments of the fan base claiming “the Braves should have prepared more for an injury!” or “why didn’t they add more in the offseason?” but the fact is you never adequately prepare for losing an ace, especially a week into the season. No team can, from Philadelphia to New York to Houston to Los Angeles.
The Braves, however, are fortunate to have a handful of options to help navigate the choppy waters without Strider.
Waiting in the wings
Darius Vines will make the next start in the rotation against the high-powered Houston Astros on Monday. It comes as a bit of a surprise as most had Bryce Elder next in line to get a crack at the rotation, but the Braves will turn to the 25-year-old righty who made his debut a year ago.
While it was a tale of two seasons for Elder in 2023 for the 24-year old righty, he appears to be in the Braves’ rotation plans at some point. Elder may not be the sub-three ERA guy he was in the first half of last season’s campaign, but if he can limit his walks and keep his strikeouts moderately high — his strikeout-walk rate declined by 4.2% during the second half as the wheels fell off a bit — he can be a successful big leaguer with a nearly 50% ground ball rate.
In terms of the upside play, that would be A.J. Smith-Shawver, arguably the team’s top prospect. After a strong showing in spring training, the Braves have slow played Smith-Shawver a bit in Gwinnett in an attempt to limit his innings and presumably keep his arm fresher for the back half of the season. Smith-Shawver still has a ways to go to establish himself as a Major League option, but his time may be coming soon.
Allan Winans’ spot start this past week did not go well to say the least, although the Braves were awful defensively behind him. Winans has obvious limitations, but with the Braves’ lineup and bullpen firing on all cylinders, they could likely survive a handful of starts, if needed in an emergency.
Finally, there is last summer’s top draft selection, Hurston Waldrep. The hype machine may have gotten a little out of control with his blazing debut last summer, but Waldrep’s wicked splitter will carry him to the majors at some point. It may not be in the immediate future, but the possibility of a debut in the coming months is certainly possible.
Elder, Smith-Shawver, Winnans, Vines, Waldrep. That’s five arms. As mentioned in the introduction, no one can replace a talent like Strider. But the Braves’ lineup and bullpen should be able to support one of these five arms for the coming months.
Did somebody say trade deadline?
The other option to bolster the rotation, of course, will be at trade deadline. While there is a lot of baseball to be played between now and July, there is always pitching for sale. At the risk of going through 29 other rosters and trying to guess who will be available in 3+ months, the Braves will surely do their due diligence to try and add for the postseason push. The generally risk-adverse Alex Anthopoulos may have to go outside of his comfort zone to make something happen.
It’s going to be fine
There was understandable panic as Strider went down. Make no mistake about it, the Braves are not as good without his lively fastball and wipeout slider every fifth day. Any team losing its ace in early April would feel the heat.
The need for Max Fried, Chris Sale, Charlie Morton and Reynaldo Lopez to stay relatively healthy has certainly increased, and one of those arms in Gwinnett will need to step up.
At the end of the day, Atlanta is going to be fine. The lineup is as good as any, and the bullpen is eight deep (with reinforcements waiting in Gwinnett). It seems more likely than not that Elder or Smith-Shawver or Winans or Vines will be able to help cover innings in the coming months, and the possibility of an outside impact addition come trade deadline time is on the table.
The regular season is very much a marathon and not a sprint, especially in April. The Braves may have hit a road block as the marathon began, but it is hardly one that will derail the season.
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