The Atlanta Braves will wrap up a long homestand this weekend with a three-game series against the Cleveland Guardians. The series will be a matchup of the two best teams in the majors over the first month of the season. While it’s not surprising to see the Braves involved in that series, it is a little strange for the other team to be the Guardians, who were projected to be essentially a .500 team on Opening Day.

The Braves come into the series fresh off a three-game sweep of the Miami Marlins that gave them a 17-6 record. Atlanta is 9-1 over its last 10 games and leads the National League with a +44 run differential. The Guardians just took two of three from the Boston Red Sox and are 18-7 with a majors-best +49 run differential. Interestingly, the Guardians have a pretty poor BaseRuns record (13-11), which suggests that their run differential, and their record, are the result of good sequencing on their end (and/or bad sequencing on their opponents’ ends) moreso than strong context-neutral outcomes. You can kind of see why when looking at their team ranks so far — seventh in position player fWAR and 12th in pitching fWAR, while the Braves are first in the former and 16th in the latter.

Atlanta is expected to get a boost to its lineup in time for the series opener. Infielder David Fletcher was sent to Gwinnett Thursday, paving the way for the return of Ozzie Albies from the Injured List. Albies suffered a fractured toe on the last road trip but has ramped up his activity this week and it appears that he will be ready to go Friday when he is first eligible to return.

Cleveland has been paced by Steven Kwan (1.2 fWAR, .370s wOBA, .340s xwOBA) and Josh Naylor (0.6 fWAR, .390s wOBA, .410s xwOBA) offensively, but continues to field a lot of offensively-challenged bats. Emmanuel Clase and Hunter Gaddis have been incredible out of the bullpen in April, and the Cleveland pitching factory continues to churn out effective arms.

Friday, April 26, 7:20 p.m. ET (Bally Sports South)

Logan Allen (5 GS, 26.2 IP, 18.6 K%, 8.0 BB%, 5.06 ERA, 5.52 FIP)

Lefty Logan (L.T.) Allen will make his sixth start of the season in Friday’s opener at Truist Park. Allen was the Guardians’ second round pick in the 2020 Draft. He made his major league debut last season where he made 24 starts after joining the rotation, and pitched quite admirably, with a 91 ERA-, 99 FIP-, and 100 xFIP- across his first 125 ¹⁄₃ innings. It has been a little more of a struggle for Allen to start 2024, though. After allowing three runs over his first 11 2/3 innings, Allen has given up 12 in his last 15 innings across three starts. The first of those games was just a regular BABIP-fueled affair against the White Sox, but he’s allowed two homers in each of his last two starts as offenses have skied ball after ball off of him. He allowed five hits, three walks and three runs over 5 1/3 innings in his last outing against the Athletics. Friday’s game will be Allen’s first career appearance against the Braves.

Allen throws one of the weirdest changeups in the game, so that’ll be a fun thing for the Braves to marvel at and maybe try to hit. He also has a strange cutter that he struggles to command, but it’s been effective for him this year after getting knocked around in 2023. On the flip side, his worsening changeup command early this season may be a reason for his struggles. The fastball only comes in at 91 mph, and though it’s placed at the top of the zone, the Braves should be able to do some real damage on it.

Chris Sale (4 GS, 24.2 IP, 27.6 K%, 6.1 BB%, 4.38 ERA, 3.40 FIP)

Chris Sale will be operating with a couple of extra days of rest when he takes the mound in the series opener Friday. He’s coming off a good outing against the Rangers where he allowed three runs over seven innings while throwing just 89 pitches. Sale has totaled seven strikeouts in each of his last two starts. Overall, Sale’s numbers would look a lot better if not for a pitifully low strand rate and an elevated HR/FB; his 76 xFIP- is a top-20 mark among the 120 pitchers or so that have completed 20-plus innings so far.

Having spent all of his career before 2024, in the American League, Sale has plenty of experience against the Guardians against whom he has a 4.60 ERA in 135 career innings, albeit with a 3.95 FIP and 3.27 xFIP. (That’s a lot of innings over which to run a HR/FB rate north of 16 percent.) He made one start against Cleveland last season and allowed one run and struck out five over 6 1/3 innings.

Saturday, April 27, 7:20 p.m. ET (Bally Sports South)

Tanner Bibee (5 GS, 24.1 IP, 23.4 K%, 10.8 BB%, 4.44 ERA, 4.76 FIP)

Right-hander Tanner Bibee will get the start in Saturday’s matchup. Bibee, a fifth-round pick by the Guardians in the 2021 Draft out of Cal State Fullerton, is another of Cleveland’s young arms that joined the rotation last season. Bibee has allowed three runs or less in four of his five starts, but this belies the fact that his season has been insanely inconsistent to date. He had a 4/5 K/BB ratio in his first start, but then dominated the Twins with a 9/0 K/BB ratio. Then he struggled again against the White Sox with a 2/3 K/BB ratio, wriggled out of trouble in Fenway park despite a 3/2 mark, and most recently had an 8/2 K/BB ratio against the Athletics. He’s also allowed a homer in four straight starts. Like Allen, this will be his first time facing the Braves.

Bibee’s breaking pitches seem to have really lost their shape in the offseason, and now look horrible on paper. The changeup has been effective for him consistently, but it lacks depth.

Charlie Morton (4 GS, 23.0 IP, 23.2 K%, 10.5 BB%, 4.70 ERA, 3.81 FIP)

Charlie Morton will make his fifth start of the season for the Braves in Saturday’s game. Morton went into his last start needing a good performance and delivered, holding the Rangers to just two runs over six innings, without times-through-the-order or left-handed batter drama. Morton has pitched into the sixth inning in all four of his starts this season.

Sunday, April 28, 1:35 p.m. ET (Bally Sports South)

Ben Lively (2 GS, 11.1 IP, 33.3 K%, 2.4 BB%, 2.38 ERA, 3.25 FIP)

Righty Ben Lively will get the start for Cleveland in the finale Sunday. Lively has bounced around a bit in his career, including stints with the Reds, Phillies and Royals. He also spent time in the KBO from 2019 until 2021. Sunday’s game will be his third start with the Guardians this season, and the first two have been money. Weirdly, they’ve both come against the Red Sox, and he struck out seven while allowing a homer in each. Lively has faced the Braves twice in his career where he has allowed 17 hits and nine runs in 12 innings; both of those games came during the 2017 season.

An extreme junkballer at this point, Lively looks like the starting version of Jesse Chavez, and honestly, with a 14/1 K/BB ratio to this point, who’s arguing?

Bryce Elder (1 GS, 6.2 IP, 15.4 K%, 0.0 BB%, 0.00 ERA, 2.41 FIP)

Bryce Elder will stick in the Braves’ rotation and make his second start of the season in Sunday’s game. Elder scattered eight hits and didn’t walk anyone while tossing 6 2/3 scoreless innings against the Marlins. Elder faced the Guardians once last season where he allowed two runs over 6 2/3 innings, despite a 1/2 K/BB ratio.