Could the Braves try to lure Aaron Nola away from the Philadelphia Phillies?

Aaron Nola may return to the Philadelphia Phillies this winter, but he has no desire to give manager John Middleton a “hometown discount.” We broke down six potential suitors for Nola in free agency yesterday, but they are far from the only teams that could be interested in one of the league’s most durable arms.

From the Phillies’ standpoint, the six-time defending NL East champion Atlanta Braves could be the scariest conceivable bidder for Nola. We reported last month that the Braves are among the contending teams that make sense as potential suitors for Nola, and while there is no definite evidence linking him to the NL East rivals, some important voices are already making similar predictions.

Over the weekend, The Athletic’s David O’Brien reported that if Atlanta can address their left field void with natural shortstop Vaughn Grissom, it may be able to spend in a starting pitcher in free agency. O’Brien specifically mentioned Nola’s durability and playoff success the last two years against the Braves as reasons why he would be a good match in Atlanta. He also claimed that if the Braves had to choose between signing Nola this offseason and re-signing Max Fried after the 2024 season, they should choose with the former because he has a longer track record of pitching at or near 200 innings per season.

On The Athletic on Monday, Ken Rosenthal continued to analyze the compatibility, adding that Nola has a close relationship with Braves pitching coach Rick Kranitz. Kranitz was the Phillies’ bullpen coach in 2016 and 2017, before taking over as pitching coach in 2018, when Nola finished third in the NL Cy Young Award voting. Rosenthal also believes Nola, a Louisiana native who has traditionally thrown effectively in warm conditions, may choose to pitch for a team in the south. (Nola has stated repeatedly that he wishes to remain with the Phillies.)

In the same manner that the Phillies may be putting out there that they are interested in Blake Snell and Sonny Gray in order to squeeze Nola’s camp, the right-hander benefits from the potential that his long-time employer believes their main rivals are interested in signing him away. Even if they don’t make a significant play for Nola, the Braves are certain to up the asking price for the free-agent pitcher. Perhaps he’ll price himself out of a range that the Phillies are willing to pay. Or perhaps the Phillies will meet his asking price, but it will be so exorbitant that they will make one less investment in their bullpen or bench this winter.

But dismissing the Braves entirely would be a mistake. Alex Anthopoulos, President of Baseball Operations, has signed so many elite position players to team-friendly contracts that he now has the option to splurge at the top of the market on another area of need. And the Braves’ most pressing need is a solid starting pitcher, preferably one with a track record of remaining healthy.

The Braves have made the postseason despite serious injuries to starters such as Mike Foltynewicz, Cole Hamels, Michael Soroka, Huascar Ynoa, Kyle Wright, and the aforementioned Fried over the last half-decade. With the exception of their 2021 World Series victory, the Braves’ lack of solid top-of-the-rotation pitchers has caught up with them in the postseason. The Braves’ back-to-back NLDS losses to the Phillies have demonstrated that they are a team constructed for the 162-game marathon that is the regular season, rather than the sprint that is the postseason. Signing Nola would help the Braves solve the problem while also weakening the team that has eliminated them in each of the previous two postseasons.

It remains to be seen whether the Braves will eventually have the guts to pay Nola between $150 and $200 million, but they are one of nearly ten teams that don’t wear red pinstripes for home games that make sense as potential landing destinations for the 30-year-old. Keeping the longest-tenured Phillie will be difficult.