Why Did the Twins Pass on Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda?

 

 

The Minnesota Twins have yet to make a meaningful offseason move this season. We’ve heard a lot about the salary declining, but does that have anything to do with the front office’s decision not to bring back Sonny Gray or Kenta Maeda?

Derek Falvey’s winter shopping list was expected to contain a right-handed batter, a center fielder, and a starting pitcher. After Rocco Baldelli’s club had one of the best teams in the league previous season, the last item on the list could be the most essential. Minnesota still has depth, but Pablo Lopez will be looking for a running mate.

Last season, both Kenta Maeda and Sonny Gray pitched in significant innings for the Twins. The latter finished second in the American League Cy Young voting to Gerrit Cole. That represented how good of a season he had and the salary he would demand from any potential suitor. While Maeda didn’t have the same level of success, he did well, and trades for pitchers like Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson helped him monetarily.

So, why weren’t the Twins more eager to keep either of their outgoing starters? That solution is multifaceted, but not very complicated. This front staff has been reluctant to pay free agents. When you realize you’re getting someone else’s leftovers, that’s a logical position to take. Every free agent is on the market because their former employer allowed them to, and they are most likely doing so at an advanced age in baseball.

 

 

Under Falvey, the Twins have never spent more than $20 million on a starting pitcher, and that was a two-year deal for Michael Pineda to help him while he recovered from Tommy John surgery. Expecting them to shift direction on that process with Maeda (as he approaches his late 30s) or Gray (as he’s been paid more based on previous performance) never seemed like a safe bet.

In reality, the Twins did not keep Gray or Maeda because the length of each contract would have been prohibitively expensive. Maeda has finally landed a non-incentive-laden contract, and his base income will be about the same as the eight-year deal he signed when he came over from Japan. A total guarantee of $24 million didn’t have to be prohibitively expensive for Minnesota, but their focus was on Maeda being a one-year arm for them, if he was to return at all. Scott Boras was determined to find at least a two-year contract, and with the Tigers having a greater need, they were the team to bite.

Minnesota was interested in reaching a short-term contract with Gray. They demonstrated the sincerity of their feelings by making the Qualifying Offer. Of course, Gray would never sign that one-year deal, so it was a moot matter, but the Twins would have gladly paid $25 million for his services for a season or two.

 

 

The difficulty was that the market was always going to grant Gray a third year, and Minnesota’s desire seemed non-existent. He hasn’t had the most durable arm throughout his career, and that’s unlikely to alter as he gets older. St. Louis needed to find their ace, and matching talent with Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt was essential before it was too late.

The front staff is now challenged with replacing Maeda and Gray’s innings and starts. They went into the offseason with that expectation, and it has now become a reality. The Twins staying put seems exceedingly implausible, and adding someone like Dylan Bundy, J.A. Happ, or Matt Shoemaker also doesn’t seem possible. They are already looking into the trade business, and it appears that here is where they will make their entry. It’s unclear who they’ll pick, but there are lots of worthy possibilities out there.

It could have been fun to run it again after a successful run in 2023. A comparable conclusion with everyone repeating success or performing at a better level, on the other hand, would not have been likely, and Minnesota must forge a new path toward more desirable results.

 

 

Maeda was a great way to be a part of the Mookie Betts craze with the Dodgers, and getting Gray was a well-executed move that has brought the team full circle.

It’s alright to be sorry that both have passed away while knowing that the proper decision was made.