War, huh? What is it excellent for?

 

 

I had a kickass lede regarding WAR and other new analytic statistics.  But, your recent WAR discussion kind of pre-empted that.  So, I put those paragraphs aside and give you this condensed version.  Sorry.  The delay led to the comments section growing much larger than intended.

WAR like ALL stats is not predictive.  It is a historical representation of baseball stuff that has already happened.  Unlike older stats that are pretty straightforward about what they convey, WAR is one of many new age stats that are a compilation of actual data and some additional stuff as baseball nerds try to come up with a single number to define the sport and compare its players.

Hopefully, the players who are slowing down the free agent market reach agreements this week and release the logjam.  Otherwise, we are looking at another slow news week.

Summary of Available Money – beyond the $237,000,000 CBT barrier in 2024 (for 40 players). So far, the total cost is $247,633,771. 50% tax rate on $17,633,771. Additional penalties: 62% for surpassing $257 million, 95% for exceeding $277 million, and 110% for exceeding $297 million.

Sunk costs include $20,916,667 in player benefits, an anticipated salary for 14 minor league players, and a zero-to-three-year player bonus pool.
Guaranteed- $208,224,285 in real salary tied up in 14 contracts for 14 contracts – Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Aaron Nola, JT Realmuto, Zack Wheeler, Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber, Taijuan Walker, Jose Alvarado, Matt Strahm, Seranthony Dominguez, Jake Cave, Dylan Covey, and Garrett Stubbs.
Dcott Kingery’s buyout is $1,000,000, with no additional choices.
Arbitration Eligible Players – Ranger Suarez, Alec Bohm, Gregory Soto, Jeff Hoffman, and Edmundo Sosa received $17,700,000 each. Josh Fleming was non-tendered and elected free agency, while Cave, Covey, and Stubbs settled.

 

 

Pre-Arbitration Players: Andrew Bellatti, Connor Brogdon, Orion Kerkering, Yunior Marte, McKinley Moore, Nick Nelson, Luis Ortiz, Cristopher Sanchez, Rafael Marchan, Rodolfo Castro, Kody Clemens, Darick Hall, Bryson Stott, Weston Wilson, Brandon Marsh, Simon Muzziotti, Christian Pache, Johan Rojas, and Michael Mercado.

Rule 5 Candidates – Unless they are on the AAA roster (bold text) and ineligible for the minor league portion, all players listed below are eligible for both parts of the draft – LHP: Keylan Killgore, Taylor Lehman, David Parkinson, Tyler Phillips, Erubiel Armenta, Gabriel Cotto, Rafael Marcano, Jordi Martinez, Samuel Aldegheri, Jordan Fowler Tyler McKay, Cristian Hernandez, Starlyn Castillo, Carlos A. Francisco, Dominic Pipkin, Andrew Schultz, Brett Schulze, Eduar Segovia, Noah Skirrow, Blake Brown, Gunner Mayer, Jean Cabrera, Eiberson Castellano, Jonathan Petit, Luis Alcala, Javier Fuenmayor, Oswald Medina, Carlos Betancourt, Carlos Betancourt

Aramis Garcia, Arturo De Freitas, Herbert Iser, Cody Roberts, Andrick Nava, Jose Colmenarez, Jorge Mendez, Jackie Pertuz, Brahian Silva, Aramis Garcia, Arturo De Freitas, Herbert Iser, Cody Roberts, Andrick Nava, Jose Colmena Scott Kinegry, Nick Podkul, Esteban Quiroz, Chris Cornelius, Wilfredo Flores, Kendall Simmons, Rixon Wingrove, Pedro Martinez, Casey Martin, Erick Brito, Diego Gonzalez, Jehisbert Sevilla, Fernando Hernandez, Jarol Martinez, Pedro Martinez, Casey Martin, Erick Brito, Diego Gonzalez, Jehisbert Sevilla, Fernando Hernandez, Jarol Martinez Cal Stevenson, Matt Kroon, Carlos De La Cruz, Marcus Lee Sang, Baron Radcliff, Leandro Pineda, Ricardo Rosario, and Jose Leanez are the outfielders.

Free Agents vs. Trades – With the Phillies having already surpassed the CBT level, trades become a more plausible option for acquiring a significant piece. That isn’t to say the Phillies are finished with free agency. Regardless of what the clickbait reporters say, they are unlikely to sign a Yamamoto or a Hader. Regardless of what the clickbaiters claim, they are not in the market for a Trout or a Soto. (Well, maybe Soto.) So, what is the most likely scenario?

The Phillies are still looking for a reliever to replace Kimbrell, either through free agency or trade.
At Triple-A, the Phillies will continue to add SP and RP depth.
The Phillies would like to add to their bench, preferably with a RHB.
The Phillies will continue to look for ways to improve on the outskirts. Aside from pitching, the corner outfield positions, center field, and third base are also possibilities. Certain upgrades, if obtained through trade, may necessitate further moves to replace a moved player.
Short of Yamamoto, the Phillies will make every effort to break into the Japanese free agent market.