Breaking: Returning Red Sox starters still have potential to progress

Returning Red Sox starters still have potential to progress

The biggest reason the Red Sox finished last this past season was because of its starting rotation. The starters couldn’t collectively stay healthy, nor could they consistently pitch deep into games. With the rotation unable to shoulder the load the whole ballclub wound up collapsing down the stretch.

So it was widely expected the Red Sox would bring in outside reinforcements to help shore things up. Instead the club traded Chris Sale and allowed James Paxton and Corey Kluber to leave as free agents, and so far the only one brought in to replace them has been free agent righty Lucas Giolito.

Barring any surprise additions the Red Sox look set to rely on the same collection of arms who weren’t able to deliver last season. Yet new Red Sox pitching coach Andrew Bailey sees unrealized potential in this returning group, and when asked if they need more outside additions this past weekend, he said they already have enough talent to win.

“No,” Bailey said. “I’m excited about our group.”

Between the hire of Craig Breslow as chief baseball officer, Bailey as pitching coach and the wholesale overhaul of the club’s pitching development infrastructure, the Red Sox are making a big bet that the answer to their pitching woes is already in the organization, and rather than throw money at the problem they can achieve better results by getting more out of the arms they have.

Specifically, the Red Sox are counting on young guys like Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford, Garrett Whitlock and Tanner Houck to take a step forward, and for veterans like Nick Pivetta and Lucas Giolito to maintain the level of excellence they’ve shown flashes of at points in their careers.

“We have a lot of talent, and for me, if certain guys in our rotation and on our team aren’t at higher levels going into next season we just didn’t do our jobs,” Bailey said. “We’re expecting players to take steps forward and helping them along that path and helping them be the best versions of themselves every time out.”

Bailey’s track record should provide reason for optimism. During his four-year stint as pitching coach of the San Francisco Giants, his pitchers ranked sixth in MLB with a 3.80 ERA while allowing the fewest home runs (525) and posting the third-highest strikeout-to-walk ratio (3.16).

He’s shown a knack for helping talented arms put it all together. Under his guidance both Kevin Gausman and Carlos Rodon put together career seasons in San Francisco, finishing sixth in the NL Cy Young vote in 2021 and 2022, respectively, and parlayed that success into big free agent contracts.

He also played a crucial role in the development of Logan Webb, who has been on an upwards trajectory ever since his debut in 2019 and finished second in the NL Cy Young vote last season.

“They have an opportunity to set themselves up for generational wealth, and this game is paying a high price on the free agent market. Helping them achieve that is paramount for me,” Bailey said. “It’s not just about that but we also understand if our pitchers are performing to their best and they’re setting themselves up for arbitration or free agency, the Boston Red Sox are also winning games at the same time and you’re creating value for the organization.”

So how can the Red Sox pitchers take that next step and become the best version of themselves? Bailey said he wants his pitchers to use their best pitches as often as possible and to throw them for strikes. If there’s a particular pitch that isn’t producing good outcomes, it should be de-emphasized or discarded, and the coaches should also do everything they can to help identify areas of improvement and put the pitchers in position to succeed.

Individually there is also reason for optimism. Bello made tremendous strides and established himself as a legitimate big league starter last year at age 24. Whitlock and Houck were both coming off major surgeries, and Houck had been trending upwards before being hit in the head by a line drive. Crawford quietly put together a solid season despite his generally being limited to five innings a start, and Nick Pivetta emerged as one of the most overpowering pitchers in baseball after moving to the bullpen and introducing a sweeper to his pitch arsenal.

“I think cleaning up the gray area there and doubling down on strengths is going to be huge,” Bailey said.

Ultimately Bailey’s goal is for the Red Sox to be viewed in a similar fashion as clubs like the Tampa Bay Rays, who seem to have a bottomless well of pitching talent and the ability to turn nobodies into monsters overnight. Ideally the Red Sox will reach a point where there’s no need to supplement the big league roster with high-priced free agents, and if he does his job right everyone who comes through the big league clubhouse will reach their full potential as pitchers.

“That’s where we’re going to get to, when you come to Boston or you’re going to play the Red Sox, these guys are going to come at you, throw strikes, they have really nasty stuff, throw hard and in the zone,” Bailey said. “I want to be viewed in the upper echelon of the league as a pitching staff, and I would also say they weren’t too far off last year as well.”

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