Beat writers roundtable: Can beefed-up Yankees dethrone Orioles? Could they finish 4th again?

 

The 2023 season was a huge disappointment for the Yankees. They barely finished above .500, going 82-80. They missed the playoffs for the first time since 2016 and it wasn’t even close. They finished fourth in the AL East, only ahead of the Red Sox.

We’re two-thirds of the way through the offseason and the Yankees have made some big moves: Juan Soto, Marcus Stroman and Alex Verdugo. Of the other clubs in the division, most chose to stand pat.

The Orioles, who edged out the Rays for first place, have some of the best young talent in baseball. They seem set up to be an AL powerhouse for a few years. The Blue Jays were a playoff team last season and are still loaded with talent.

Where do the Yankees stack up in the division?

The oddsmakers have the Yankees as favorites, not that it means anything.

NJ Advance Media baseball writers Randy Miller and Max Goodman and baseball columnist Bob Klapisch discuss the East in their latest offseason roundtable:

Klapisch: For me, the Orioles are the favorites to repeat. I find it hard to pick against a young team that’s coming off a 101-win season. Baltimore just has too much young talent and too many weapons to envision a regression. In fact, I think they’re on the cusp of becoming an American League powerhouse. The Orioles are going to be a problem for the Yankees this year and for years to come.

Goodman: I’m with Bob. What held the Orioles back, in terms of flopping in the playoffs this past year, was their inexperience and the fact that they didn’t have an ace. Their younger guys are going to continue to get better and they might use some of the talent in their loaded farm system to go out before spring training or prior to the summer trade deadline to improve the top of their starting staff. It might be Dylan Cease, who would be a great fit. I have Baltimore repeating. as well. I think the Yankees can certainly come in second, but as has been the topic of conversation all offseason, there are just so many what ifs in their lineup and in the rotation with their veterans and injury history. I actually could see the Yankees coming in fourth if everything goes wrong again, but I think that sweet spot is in the wild card race. I think the Yankees will get into the playoffs as a second- or third-place team.

Miller: I think it’s a two-team race between the Orioles and the Yankees. If I had to pick today, I would take the Yankees. I’m not a big fan of Baltimore’s rotation. I know the Yankees’ have big question marks, but the O’s don’t have a true ace and they lost two starters to free agency that haven’t been replaced, 15-game winner Kyle Gibson and John Flaherty. I like Kyle Bradish, but he’s no Gerrit Cole. I like John Means, but he’s as much an injury risk as Carlos Rodon. Grayson Rodriguez is a potential No. 1, but he was hot and cold as a rookie last season and probably won’t be in his prime this year. I love the Orioles lineup, but the Yankees just added Soto and Verdugo, That’s adding one great bat and one good one. The Orioles’ only significant winter addition was signing one of the most unreliable closers in the majors, Craig Kimbrel. I’d be angry if I was an Orioles fan. They can salvage the winter by trading for Cease, but they be spending money to compliment their young talent and, as usual, their ownership has been cheap. As for the rest of the AL East, the Blue Jays lost Matt Chapman, Hyun Jin Ryu, Jordan Hicks and Brandon Belt to free agency. Their big moves were re-signing Kevin Kiermaier and bringing in Isiah Kiner-Falefa to platoon at third or be a utility guy. The Rays won’t be as good. They traded their best starting pitcher and one of their best bats to save money, Tyler Glasnow, Manuel Margot. Four other starting pitchers will most much or all of the season – Shane McClanahan, Jeffrey Springs, Drew Rasmussen and Shane Baz. The Red Sox have Rafael Devers and not much else. They didn’t try to compete the last two years and nothing’s changed. The Yankees are winning the division.

Klapisch: Randy, I’d like to know where your optimism comes from considering the Yankees still have huge question marks. And I’m not just talking about the rotation. What about Anthony Rizzo? What about DJ LeMahieu? What about Giancarlo Stanton? That’s three veterans trending in the wrong direction. Unless they do a 180 this year, or even a modest turn-around, then you’re looking at significant problems in run-production. There’s power, no question, between Aaron Judge, Stanton and Soto. But the overall bat-to-ball skills are a far cry from what they used to be. And, of top of that, you’ve got a .200 hitter in Anthony Volpe. He needs to remake his swing to become the hitter the Yankees envisioned. So that’s four spots in the lineup that are question marks. So, no, I just don’t share the optimism.

Miller: I think we’re going to see a better season from Stanton, Rizzo and LeMahieu. They may not be in their prime anymore, but prime Judge and Soto will lead to more runs scored than last year. I like the Yankees pitching, too. Their bullpen was the best in the league and they will be good again. I also think they are way overdue to have some better injury luck. Max, you think the Yankees potentially are a fourth-place teamm? No way. The Rays won’t be nearly as good as they were last season. The Blue Jays got worse. And, again, I’m not sold on the Orioles starting pitching. I give the Yankees starter a big edge and I won’t change my mind even if Rodon flops again and Baltimore adds Cease. I see the Yankees being a 95-win team.

Klapisch: I want whatever you’re on, man! Honestly, I want some of that happy medication, please.

Goodman: Look, I’m just prefacing the fact that so much has to go right for the Yankees to get to that point where they’re contending for a division title. As we saw this past year, a lot can go wrong. I’m not predicting that they will come in fourth. I just mean that if they have another season full of adversity where key guys get hurt and the veterans continued to decline, maybe Volpe and Austin Wells, Jasson Dominguez and other younger guys don’t take steps forward, then they’re in trouble. I totally agree that other teams in the division have taken steps back, but it’s still one of the best divisions in baseball, if not the best. I think the sweet spot is in that wild card race for them right now. This time last year, a lot of us were pretty confident that the Yankees would finish at the top of the division and then look what happened. On paper, it’s easy to say they’ll be comfortably in the postseason race right now, but I think we have to have this conversation again maybe after a couple of months of the season to see what question marks they are able to erase.

Klapisch: One thing is for sure: the Yankees need a fast start for many reasons. Number one is to keep Aaron Boone off the hot seat and the subject of countless stories speculating about his imminent firing. That’s a distraction the Yankees don’t need but it will happen if they’re six or seven games out May 15, playing poorly, all the questions we’ve asked are not answered in the affirmative. Boone is going to face intense scrutiny. It could be a factor.

Miller: It’s amazing to me that the Red Sox, by the way, aren’t even trying to win.

Klapisch: They finished with 78 wins two years in a row. It’s hard to believe how far and how fast they’ve fallen.

Miller: Boston traded Chris Sale. They didn’t bring back Justin Turner. I like Vaughn Grissom, a young second baseman who was up from the Braves in the Sale trade, but look at their projected starting outfield – Jarren Duran, Tyler O’Neill and Wilyer Abreu. They’re finishing last again.

Klapisch: Down cycles are part of the industry, no one is entirely immune. But I don’t see the Yankees heading for a long Ice Age. This isn’t 1966. On the other hand, they’ve got a ways to go to catch the Orioles. It’s going to be a fascinating summer.