Colton Cowser went into spring training as an underdog to make the Orioles roster. The outfield was stacked with incumbent veterans and a gaggle of youngsters vying for their own spot. But two weeks into the 2024 season that feels like a distant memory. Cowser is quickly turning himself into a fixture of Brandon Hyde’s lineup.

Success for Cowser at the major league level is not some huge surprise. The Orioles made him the fifth overall pick in the 2021 draft for a reason, and it was not only because he was willing to take an under-slot deal. This was a talented player that ended up crushing the ball throughout his minor league journey. As a result, he found himself on Top 100 lists heading into 2022, ‘23, and ‘24.

But the general perception of Cowser was certainly soured by his abysmal debut in 2023. Across 26 games last year he went just 7-for-61 with a 28.6% strikeout rate, and when the Sam Houston product did make contact he wasn’t hitting it very hard. His 87.4 mph average exit velocity would have been near the bottom of the league over a full season.

Eric Longenhagen over at FanGraphs particularly lost his belief in Cowser, removing him entirely from their Top 100 list and changing his outlook from an everyday outfielder to a platoon bat with swing-and-miss issues. Longenhagen is one of the public scouts that tends to be in lockstep with how Mike Elias views prospects, so that could have been seen as the canary in the coal mine for the outfielder.

There simply weren’t very many positives to take from our initial taste of Cowser. While his 16.9% walk rate and 20.9% chase rate were quite good, they seemingly came at the expense of all other metrics. Hyde said this past weekend that he felt Cowser was “too patient” in 2023.

It’s somewhat similar to what Gunnar Henderson dealt with to begin 2023. The young infielder had a walk rate of 18.5% in March/April, then 13% in May. At the same time his wRC+ was an underwhelming 96 and 103, respectively in those months. When he started to get more aggressive, his numbers took off and eventually he won Rookie of the Year. The same thing is happening to Cowser now.

Cowser’s walk numbers are way down to 7.9% so far this year, which is slightly below league average. But everything else is off the charts. His slash line is ridiculous at .441/.474/.971, and while those numbers are a little too good to be true, his peripherals are not drastically different.

All of his expected numbers are among the league’s elite: .465 xwOBA, .352 xBA, .702 xSLG. And that’s because he’s continuing to not chase, but he’s also swinging slightly more often (from 40.4% in 2023 to 41.8% in 2024) and he is swinging at pitches in the zone a decent amount more (from 61.8% to 65.5%).

As a result, Cowser is seeing fewer pitchers in general. In 2023, he faced 4.74 pitches/plate appearance. If he had played enough games to be a qualified hitter that would have led the league. This year he is down to 4.16 pitches per plate appearance. That still would have been a lot in 2023, right around 18th in MLB and third on the Orioles behind Adley Rutschman and Anthony Santander. But it is a drastic decrease and a reflection of his improved aggressiveness.

Of course, it’s not as simple as saying that players need to swing more often to be successful. There is a learning curve, and that often requires some lengthy struggles to begin your career. It might even necessitate a period of prolonged patience and seeing major league pitching before you adjust. As mentioned, Henderson started 2023 rather slow. Rutschman slashed .180/.273/.256 in his first 10 big league games. Jackson Holliday is currently going through his own growing pains. Heck, even Grayson Rodriguez on the pitching side went from horrific initially to unhittable down the stretch last year. Cowser seems to be cut from that same cloth.

There are some aspects of Cowser’s current performance that will fall back to earth eventually. His .500 BABIP is absurdly high, and a decrease there will certainly lower his batting average. But given how hard he is hitting the ball he could end up with something like a .330 BABIP at year’s end, well above league average and among others with high exit velocities.

The other metric that will drop is how often his fly balls turn into homers. Right now, Cowser is seeing half of his fly balls leave the park. For context, Aaron Judge had a 35.6% home run per fly ball rate in 2022, when he hit 62 bombs. As good as Cowser has been, he’s probably not going to challenge for MLB’s home run record. But again, he’s hitting the ball really hard, so we could just see more doubles and fewer home runs as things normalize.

Away from the plate, Cowser has also looked more comfortable. The Orioles have already played him in each of the three outfield positions, most often in Camden Yards’ cavernous left field. The eyeball test says that he’s looking quite good. It takes a while for defensive metrics to reach their equilibrium, so there isn’t much use at looking at stats yet, but he has shown above-average sprints speeds and we know he has a good throwing arm. While he’s no match for Cedric Mullins’ glove in center field, Cowser is far from a liability out there.

In general, Cowser just looks more comfortable so far in 2024. He’s swinging the bat with confidence and using his athleticism both on the bases and in the field. Reality will set in with a few of his numbers eventually, but the fall shouldn’t be all the severe. The 24-year-old is crushing the ball and getting the sort of production he deserves.

This can also serve as a good reminder of the patience that fans will need to exhibit with someone like Holliday, who could look downright bad for a bit. The Orioles are giving these talented young players extended opportunities for a reason and seem confident that their talent will eventually shine through. It might not work every time, but until the Elias regime proves otherwise—once again—they deserve the benefit of the doubt.