Analyzing Top Performers: Could Nikola Jokic, the Star of the Denver Nuggets, Win His Third MVP Award?
The first trimester of the 2023-24 NBA season is almost over. With most teams having played approximately 25 games, we have a large enough sample size to analyze players and identify the top performers. Today’s league has an unprecedented level of skill. As a result, the MVP race is as congested as it has always been. Yet, after the first month of the season, Nikola Jokic was still running away with the prize, but is that still the case? Let’s take a deep breath.
Worthy of Top-10 but haven’t played enough games
Devin Booker
De’Aaron Fox
Both Booker and Fox have been playing at a near-MVP level when they have been healthy. Booker is having a career season as he switched to a full-time point guard role, averaging over 8 assists per game with incredibly impressive shooting splits of 48.4/41/91.7%. However, he has only played in 16 games so far, lower than any other MVP candidate on this list, pushing him down the rankings.
Fox is having a similarly dominant season with a career-high 30 points per game. The Sacramento Kings have been 12-6 in the games he played in. Yet, his 18 games so far are also not enough to make a strong case for the top-10. If they keep this up, they will be heard from in this race.
Outside looking in
Anthony Edwards
Stephen Curry
Anthony Davis
Edwards has been the best player on the best team in the league. When he is on the court, the Minnesota Timberwolves are outscoring their opponents by 13.8 points per 100 possessions, one of the best marks in the league. However, his below-league-average efficiency of 55.3% True Shooting is not good enough to be a serious MVP candidate for now.
Curry, on the other hand, is having another very efficient season, with an impressive 65.4% True Shooting. But the Golden State Warriors have simply not been good enough. They are 10-12 in games Curry played, and surprisingly have a better net rating with him off-the-floor than on.
Davis has the best case to be in the top-10. He has been healthy and one of the three best defensive players in the league so far. 23.9 points, 12.5 rebounds, and 2.6 blocks per game make a strong argument, but you can only be so high in MVP rankings as the second-best player on your own team.
So if the likes of AD and Curry couldn’t crack the top ten, who did?
The old guard
10. Kevin Durant
9. Kawhi Leonard
8. Lebron James
Seeing these three legends still performing at a top-10 level at this stage of their careers is inspiring. Not only are they healthier than they have been in the last few years, but they are also playing close to their prime levels. Durant had to carry a bigger offensive burden than he initially thought due to injuries to Bradley Beal and Devin Booker. The Phoenix Suns may have underwhelmed so far, but KD is still averaging over 30 points on 64% True Shooting on 32.4% usage rate.
Kawhi Leonard hasn’t missed a single game all season, carrying the Los Angeles Clippers to a 14-10 record amidst the efforts to integrate James Harden. The Clippers are 13.5 points per 100 possessions better with him on the floor, and Leonard has looked much better over the past two weeks. He could climb up even more in the next edition of these rankings.
Lebron James not only won the In-Season Tournament MVP, but he is also making a strong case for his fifth regular season MVP. He is having one of the most efficient seasons of his career with 54.5% from the field and over 40% from three, while scoring 25 points per game. His usage rate and scoring are probably not enough to crack the top-5 but doing this at 39 is absolutely ridiculous.
The new guard
7. Jayson Tatum
6. Luka Doncic
5. Tyrese Haliburton
Tatum has been consistently excellent on the most dominant team in the NBA. He brings high-level two-way production, contributing to the Boston Celtics’ success on both ends of the floor. The Celtics outscore their opponents by 9.5 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor. However, the fact that they have the same net rating with him off the floor hurts his case a little bit.
Luka Doncic has a 15-8 record in the 23 games he played in. Considering the lack of high-level talent next to him, that is impressive. He is averaging 32.3 points, 8.1 rebounds, and 9.1 assists per game, while leading one of the best offenses in the league. Dallas’ net rating with him on the court is only +2.7, and for Doncic to have a stronger case, he needs to be able to carry his team to greater heights.
Haliburton is also carrying his team offensively, as the Indiana Pacers are the best offensive team in the NBA so far. Despite a limited roster, Haliburton has carried the Pacers to a 12-9 record when he played and to the championship game of the In-Season Tournament. Combining elite level playmaking (12 assists per game) with one of the most efficient scoring seasons (65.9% True Shooting) in the league, he is a deserving top-5 MVP candidate, but not quite the cream of the crop.
So, who has been the best of the best so far?
Perennial MVP candidates
4. Giannis Antetokounmpo
3. Nikola Jokic
The two two-time MVPs are playing at an MVP level once again. Antetokounmpo started the season slowly, but found his groove lately, as he scored a career-high 64 points against the Indiana Pacers earlier this week. The Milwaukee Bucks are 15.6 points per 100 possessions better with him on the floor, and his two-way production, as demonstrated by his 32 points, 10.8 rebounds, 5 assists, 1.5 steals, and 1.3 blocks per game, continues to be a big reason why.
The Denver Nuggets’ very own Jokic has slowed down in the past few weeks relative to where he has been earlier in the season. The two early-game controversial ejections contribute to the decrease in his statistics, but he also had a couple of very poor shooting games. His efficiency is subpar for his standards this season, but Denver’s net rating with him is +11.1, and they are 23.5 points per 100 possessions better with him than without him. He still has a strong argument to be as high as no. 2 on this list.
The best of the best
2. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
1. Joel Embiid
After his breakout season last year, Gilgeous-Alexander continues to be the best two-way guard in basketball. He has carried the Oklahoma City Thunder to a 15-7 record when he played, and they destroy teams with him on the floor, outscoring their opponents by 12.3 points per 100 possessions. On top of his extremely efficient 31 points per game, he provides 2.7 steals, and 0.8 blocks per appearance and is an integral part of a successful defense. He will be top-three all season if he maintains this.
It’s becoming clear that Nikola Jokic’s primary rival in the MVP race is going to be Joel Embiid for the fourth season in a row. Regardless of what one thinks about the previous three MVP races and whether Jokic deserved to win over Embiid last season, the Sixers big man is playing the best basketball of his career. Much-improved passing has catapulted him into a tier by himself, as he is averaging a career-best 6.1 assists on top of a whopping 33.8 points per game. Philadelphia has been dominant with him on the floor, with a net rating of +13.3 and 17-4 record.
Embiid is a clear, deserving MVP so far, and Jokic has some work to do to catch up with him.
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