How many more wins can the Phillies get this season, according to our exclusive Projection?
CBS PHILADELPHIA – With the club winning 90 games for the first time since 2011, Phillies fans believe this team has a better chance of winning the World Series this year than they did last. They are supported by postseason odds from baseball statistics website Fangraphs.
The Phillies have a 6.9% probability of winning the World Series entering the postseason. While that may not seem like much, it is a whole percentage point more than where they started the playoffs last year. None of the eight clubs in this year’s Wild Card round has a better probability of advancing to a Division Series than the Philadelphia Phillies, who have a 60.2% chance of beating the Miami Marlins.
Phillies set up for playoff success
The Division Series is where things would get difficult, according to Fangraphs. At that point, the Phils would be paired with the Atlanta Braves. The 104-win Braves have MLB’s highest odds of winning the World Series at 28.9%. The Dodgers (13.5%) are the only other National League side with a higher chance than the Phils of winning it all.
Should the Phils advance to meet their NL East rivals in the NLDS, Fangraphs gives the Phillies a 39.5% chance of knocking off the Braves for a second straight year.
Other notes from the playoff odds:
How Much Money Do the Phillies Still Have to Spend?
To begin, the Roster Resource anticipated payroll is just that: an estimate. The Phillies have five players who are eligible for arbitration, and all five could wind up signing for more than their expected compensation. The team must also account for the salaries and benefits of pre-arb players and minor leaguers on the 40-man roster.
Furthermore, Philadelphia could use at least one more proven bullpen arm and a better bench bat. They don’t have to be expensive pickups, but they will cost something.
In a similar vein, the Phillies need to save some space to take on additional salary in trades. They have added at least one veteran before the deadline in every season under Dombrowski’s leadership, which means tacking a few extra million onto the preseason payroll.
As a result, if we consider $277 million to be a hypothetical cap, the Phillies will likely have roughly $18 million to spend this winter. This allows them to add at the deadline and provides a cushion in case arbitration salaries are greater than planned. Philadelphia might spend $18 million on a back-end reliever to replace Craig Kimbrel and a bench bat to push Jake Cave off the roster. Alternatively, they may acquire an outfield bat to complement Brandon Marsh and Johan Rojas, as well as a lower-leverage reliever to eat innings out of the bullpen.
However, $18 million isn’t going to get them Yamamoto – unless they’re planning to offer him a 13-year, $220 million deal.
What Will the Philadelphia Phillies Do Next?
So, what can we expect from the Phillies in the coming years? The most likely answer is that they have completed big additions. After all, this club is already quite talented, and their most significant advancements are likely to come from within. That means a complete season with Bryce Harper’s bat in the order, a season with Kyle Schwarber’s glove collecting dust in his locker, and a season with Cristopher Sánchez in the rotation and Orion Kerkering in the bullpen.
Having said that, Dave Dombrowski produces his best work when no one expects it. Each of the last two winters, the famous CEO has taken fans by surprise. He put the team into luxury tax zone for the first time two years ago, and then moved them up into the second rung of luxury tax penalties the following season. Who’s to say he won’t increase payroll even more in 2024?
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