Reasons for a Key Star’s Signing with the Phillies MLB….

 

 

Philadelphia has a reputation for being a difficult city in which to play, but it can’t be that bad. If that’s the case, why did Aaron Nola accept a lower salary to remain with the Philadelphia Phillies? Jim Thome, a member of the Baseball Hall of Fame, could have played anywhere after the 2002 season. At the time, he was a 32-year-old free agent coming off a spectacular 52-homer season in which he led the American League in slugging percentage (.677) and OPS (1.122) on route to a seventh-place MVP finish.

Needless to say, he was in high demand that winter. He told MLB Network on Wednesday why he chose to join with the Phillies.

Thome, who signed a six-year, $85 million contract with Philadelphia that December, gave several reasons for his decision. Citizens Bank Park, which was under development at the time and will open in 2004, was highlighted. He also acknowledged the “vision” of the team and, most significantly, the people.

Moving to Philadelphia was a major change for Thome at the time. After being chosen by the Cleveland Guardians in 1989, he had spent his whole 12-year career with the team.

 

 

 

He was a vital member of two AL pennant winners in the 1990s, while also emerging as one of baseball’s top sluggers, making three straight All-Star teams from 1997 to 1999.

Moving to the National League was a major step for Thome, but it worked out nicely for both parties. He immediately led the majors in home runs with 47 in 2003 and 42 the following year, earning his first and only NL All-Star selection.

After an injury-plagued 2005 season, the Phillies dealt Thome to the Chicago White Sox to open up first base for Ryan Howard, receiving Aaron Rowand and Gio Gonzalez in exchange. The slugger even returned to Philadelphia for his final season in 2012 after signing as a free agency after the 2011 season.

Even now, more than two decades after Thome first joined the Phillies, his love for the organization is still evident.

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The advantages and disadvantages of the Phillies trading for Juan Soto

The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal claimed this week that the Padres’ standout left fielder, one of the game’s best young offensive players, is “almost certain” to be traded before the start of the 2024 season.

 

 

A Soto-to-Yankees trade makes sense, and the two sides have gotten as far as swapping names, according to Andy Martino, though a deal is apparently not close. However, it makes sense for any team prepared to pay a player more than $30 million in his final year of arbitration while keeping a World Series window open.

For the record, there are no rumors or even whispers of hints that the Phillies are interested in acquiring the 2019 World Series champion, but with Bryce Harper taking over full-time first base and Kyle Schwarber becoming the everyday DH next year, there is room in left field for the Phillies to make a significant upgrade.

Sure, they could bring in a senior free agent like Tommy Pham, Adam Duvall, or Joc Pederson, along with Christian Pache or Johan Rojas as part of a collaborative effort to fill the role. Pache and/or Rojas would undoubtedly provide exceptional run prevention, and any of Pham, Duvall, or Pederson would be a viable addition to the lineup.

That appears to be the most likely scenario, but considering Soto’s availability, could the Phillies make a move for him? What are the advantages and disadvantages?

It’s Juan Soto calling: He’s 24 years old, has six years of major league experience, and has a career OPS of.946. This year, he placed sixth in the MVP vote with a.275/.410/.519 season in which he hit 35 home runs, drove in 109 runs, and led the league with 132 walks.

 

 

He accomplished all of this in San Diego, a well-known pitcher’s park. According to Baseball Reference, he also participated in all 162 games, won his sixth Silver Slugger, and was worth 5.5 WAR. He is this generation’s Ted Williams, and this one advantage outweighs all of the disadvantages listed below.

Plate Discipline: Soto is one of baseball’s most patient hitters, and when he gets his pitch, he almost always hits it. Last season, he only struck out 129 times and has led the league in walks three times in his young career. Soto’s consistency would be a nice addition to a club that had much too much swing-and-miss and poor plate discipline in the final five games of the NLCS (and throughout the season).

Soto has a.845 OPS in 29 career playoff games, hitting.261/.349/.495. In the 2019 World Series, he batted.333/.438/.471 with 3 homers and 7 RBIs in the Nationals’ 7-game victory against the Houston Astros, and also provided one of the biggest postseason hits in recent history off Josh Hader in that season’s one-game NL Wild Card Game.

Soto is entering his final year of team control before becoming a free agent. The Phillies, who will already be in the second luxury tax bracket in 2024, may not want to push their way into the third tier by offering Soto a $30 million contract this season. Would they be willing to provide him a long-term deal to assist in lowering the AAV? True, but recall that he turned down a 15-year, $440 million contract from Washington immediately before being traded to San Diego last season.

His reasoning at the time was Washington’s proclivity for offering backloaded contracts, as well as the fact that the AAV would be “only” $29.3 million, which would still be the most on the Phillies by a solid $4+ million.

 

 

Based on previous pronouncements, it’s probable he’s looking for a long-term deal for more than $500 million and won’t sign an extension unless it’s in that ballpark. If the Phillies or any other team traded for him, he’d most likely be a rental.

The Prospect Cost: In recent years, the Phillies have benefited significantly from having young players come up through the minor leagues — Bryson Stott, Alec Bohm, Cristopher Sanchez, and others — to supplement the high-priced talent. It’s unclear what the Phillies would have to give up, or be willing to give up, for one year of Soto, but I doubt Andrew Painter or Mick Abel would be made available for rent.

The Phillies are certainly willing to trading one of their young center fielders — Johan Rojas, Christian Pache, or even Justin Crawford — but there are legitimate concerns about trading too many prospects from a farm system that is only ranked in the middle of the pack in MLB.

Defense: He’s not a great left field defender, but he’s not the albatross that Kyle Schwarber was, and his run production significantly outpaces his run prevention. However, Soto’s -6 Defensive Runs Saved placed 22nd among 25 players with at least 500 innings in left field last season (Schwarber was last at an astounding -21!). His -9 Outs Above Average rated 22nd as well.

 

 

Pache’s presence in left field paid apparent rewards in the playoffs, as we saw clubs like the Rangers and Diamondbacks advance all the way to the World Series thanks in part to their agility and superb defense.

Soto is what is known as a “clubhouse cancer”: This was a prominent talking point during last year’s trade deadline, and there did appear to be issues in San Diego’s clubhouse. Much of the blame seems to rest on Manny Machado in public accounts, and there is nothing, absolutely nothing to imply Soto was a “problem” in the clubhouse. Is he a natural leader?

Is he the type to rally the troops and seize control of the clubhouse when things go tough? Most likely not, but who cares? The Phillies already have 5-10 players who can handle that, including Schwarber and Harper. They don’t need him to be a “team leader,” they just need him to hit and have a positive attitude, and if you’re scared that Soto will come in and wreck the clubhouse environment, the Phillies’ leaders aren’t as strong as we thought.

He’s “not a winner”: The Padres were a huge disappointment this year, and he struggled in San Diego after being traded midway through the 2022 season. But he was fantastic last year, and to say he’s not a winner contradicts his accomplishment in the 2019 playoffs, when he was instrumental in the Nats winning their first championship. I’ve also heard the “he plays lazy” story, but there doesn’t appear to be any confirmation of this, and it’s important to be careful how and to whom we apply that label, because it’s typically reserved for players of a certain nationality.

Too many lefties: With Schwarber and Harper, Soto would almost certainly give the Phillies three left-handed hitters in their top four or five spots. The Phillies would almost certainly welcome another big-time right-handed bat, but does handedness matter when Soto had an.813 OPS versus lefties last season and has a career.836 OPS against them? Or that Harper’s in ’23 was.884? Both of those men hit everyone, so Soto’s handedness shouldn’t be an issue.

The Phillies could undoubtedly make a push to trade for Soto and possibly sign him to a long-term contract, but it would be costly. For a team with only a few strong years remaining in their core and a World Series window that is now open, acquiring Soto for even a year could be the push they need to get over the hump and capture that tantalizingly close third championship.