Red Sox rotation outlook: Will Giolito be the much-needed ace for Boston?

Pitchers and catchers for the Boston Red Sox are scheduled to travel to Fort Myers, Florida on February 14 in order to start spring training exercises. Complete squad practices start on February 19.

We’re evaluating the Red Sox’s standing at every position for the 2024 season ahead of spring training. We’ll analyze the players predicted to start for Boston at that position in 2024 and then assign a confidence level. We’ll be updating these positional outlooks during the offseason as decisions are made.

This series’ chapter concentrates on the beginning rotation.

When chairman Tom Werner declared the Red Sox would go “full throttle” in the offseason, fans took that as the club going all out to address its glaring need for starting pitching. The comments seemed to indicate the top options on the market, such as Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Jordan Montgomery (who’s still available as of this writing), were in play.

That turned out to be a false promise. Boston’s only addition to the uninspiring rotation was Lucas Giolito on a two-year contract worth $38.5 million that includes a player option after the 2024 campaign.

While Giolito is an upgrade, he isn’t exactly what Sox fans had in mind as their ace heading into the winter. The 29-year-old is coming off a woeful season in which he allowed the most home runs in the American League (41) and posted a 4.88 ERA. He wasn’t much better in 2022 when he had a 4.90 ERA and 1.435 WHIP with the Chicago White Sox.

Giolito was traded from Chicago to the Los Angeles Angels ahead of the 2023 deadline. He made only six starts for L.A. before being placed on waivers and picked up by the Cleveland Guardians. That’s where he made his final six starts of the season, and he didn’t finish the year on a high note.

Despite his recent struggles, there’s hope that Giolito can bounce back and be the front-end starter Boston desperately needs.

“The Lucas Giolito you’re likely getting in my opinion is the Lucas Giolito that pitched really well with the White Sox,” NBC Sports Chicago’s Chuck Garfien told NBC Sports Boston last month. “He was essentially picking like their ace for the first three months of the season. What happens sometimes, especially for pitchers, when they get traded, they’re out of their comfort zone. It’s not like a hitter who can just go hit. Who’s the catcher? Who’s the pitching coach?

“I think what Lucas also did, I think he put a lot of pressure on himself because the Angels acquired him and he’s thinking, ‘OK, I’ve got to be the guy that’s gotta help (Shohei) Ohtani get to the playoffs.’

Giolito was an All-Star and a sixth-place Cy Young finisher in 2019. He followed that up with strong 2020 and 2021 campaigns that established him as one of the top pitchers in the AL. He’ll look to regain that reputation after crashing back down to earth these last couple of years.

If there’s anywhere Giolito can get back on track, one would think it would be Boston. The Craig Breslow-led Red Sox are focused on maximizing the potential of their pitchers. New pitching coach Andrew Bailey was held in high regard during his time in San Francisco and could be just what the doctor ordered for a talented albeit underperforming hurler like Giolito.

Bello is still a work in progress at 24 years old, but he was one of the few bright spots during Boston’s last-place 2023 campaign. He’ll look to make a significant leap after posting a 4.24 ERA and 1.34 WHIP with 132 strikeouts and 45 walks in 28 starts (157 innings).

The Red Sox’s former top pitching prospect had multiple signature moments last season. For one, he was a certified Yankee killer. He went 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA and 15 strikeouts in three starts against New York.

Bello also showcased his filthy stuff in a June 29 start against the Miami Marlins, when he took a no-hitter into the eighth inning. His lofty potential had some even going as far as to compare him to Red Sox legend Pedro Martinez.