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Notre Dame vs Louisville
What could go wrong? The same things that already have
Each week, one of my tasks here is to worry.
And to write about what can go wrong for Notre Dame in any given game. Is this the most fun article I produce in any given week? No, it isn’t. But it may be the most important.
What could go wrong for Notre Dame this week? It could continue to play lackadaisical football in front of its home crowd for an uncomfortable, and sometimes insurmountable amount of time.
Notre Dame is 0-2 in terms of getting off too solid starts at home this year. With it’s CFP hopes on the line, it cannot afford to stretch this to 0-3.
Louisville seems to have Notre Dame’s number
Louisville is a very interesting team to follow. They are well coached by an underrated Jeff Brohm and always seem to maximize output relative to the overall talent in the building.
They also seem to have a penchant for playing Notre Dame tough. Notre Dame must be properly prepared and motivated for this moment. I know Louisville will be.
Another added layer of nuance is the fact that both Riley Leonard and Sam Hartman, Notre Dame’s last two quarterbacks struggled against the Cardinals before transferring to Notre Dame.
In 2023, that trend continued as Hartman did not have a good game and Notre Dame lost. Can Riley Leonard break this trend? Irish CFP hopes depend on it.
Louisville vs. Notre Dame score prediction by expert college football model
Coming off its first ACC game, No. 15 Louisville hopes to preserve its undefeated record on the road against No. 16 Notre Dame, which already sits at one loss, in college football’s Week 5 action on Saturday.
Louisville is averaging over 500 yards per game and coming off a win against Georgia Tech at home, while the Fighting Irish recovered from their loss to Northern Illinois by pounding Purdue and handling Miami of Ohio last week, boosting their playoff hopes a month into the season.
What can we expect from the matchup? For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Notre Dame and Louisville compare in this Week 5 college football game.
SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”
How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 105-91-1 against the spread with a 53.6 win percentage.
Notre Dame vs. Louisville score prediction
The simulations currently favor the Fighting Irish at home, but in a close game.
SP+ predicts that Notre Dame will defeat Louisville by a projected score of 28 to 22 and to win the game by an expected 6.3 points.
The model gives the Irish a 65 percent chance of outright victory.
Point spread
Notre Dame is a 6.5 point favorite against Louisville, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, which set the total at 46.5 points for the game.
FanDuel lists the moneyline odds for Notre Dame at -240 and for Louisville at +240 to win outright.
If you’re using this projection to bet on the game, you should take…
- Louisville +6.5
- Notre Dame to win -240
- Bet over 46.5 points
Computer prediction
Other analytical models also favor the Fighting Irish against the Cardinals this week.
That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.
Notre Dame is projected to win the game in 67.5 percent of the computer’s updated simulations.
That leaves Louisville as the expected winner in the remaining 32.5 percent of sims.
Notre Dame is projected to be 6.9 points better than Louisville on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the models.
Notre Dame will win 9.7 games this season and is among the top-dozen teams with the best chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff at 36.9 percent, according to the FPI’s metrics.
That model gives Louisville a 31.3 percent shot at the playoff, second-best in the ACC this week, and projects the team will win 8.8 games.
How to watch Notre Dame vs. Louisville
When: Sat., Sept. 28
Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: Peacock
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