“We hope to retain him,” Dombrowski said of Nola. “But what if we don’t?”

On multiple occasions throughout the course of the postseason, Aaron Nola indicated a desire to

remain with the Philadelphia Phillies beyond the 2023 season.

The interest is mutual, but president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski did acknowledge in

last week’s year-end press conference that the Phillies need to be prepared for the possibility they

will have to replace Nola if the two sides can’t reach a long-term deal and the longest-tenured

player on the team departs in free agency.

“We hope to retain him,” Dombrowski said of Nola. “But if we don’t, to me, that would be our No. 1

area, we need to then replace him. We need to be in position where we have somebody else that

would be a starting pitcher of quality in the rotation. So yes, it’s either Aaron or somebody else.”

The St. Louis Cardinals haven’t been shy about their interest in Nola, while the Los Angeles

Dodgers, Atlanta Braves, San Francisco Giants, Baltimore Orioles and Chicago Cubs are among the

contenders who make sense as possible suitors for Nola.

If Nola signs elsewhere, there are question marks with a variety of the other free agent options,

such as Blake Snell, Marcus Stroman, Sonny Gray, Jordan Montgomery and Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

That may leave Dombrowski and the Phillies to replace Nola via the trade market.

Here are five front-line arms the Phillies could attempt to pair at the top of their rotation with Zack

Wheeler.

Corbin Burnes, Milwaukee Brewers

A three-time All-Star, Burnes will be pitching in a contract year in 2024. The 29-year-old edged out

the aforementioned Wheeler to win the 2021 NL Cy Young Award, and led all senior circuit pitchers

with a 1.069 WHIP in 2023. It doesn’t feel especially likely the Brewers will make the investment to

retain him beyond 2024, and if that is indeed the case, it would make sense for Milwaukee to trade

him this winter and begin to retool.

For what it’s worth, Burnes’ rotation mate, Brandon Woodruff, would have been an interesting

target as well. However, Woodruff — also set to become a free agent after the 2024 season

— recently underwent shoulder surgery that could cost him the bulk of what would have been his

contract year. Woodruff’s absence, though, may make the Brewers more resigned to their best path

moving forward being to trade Burnes.

Shane Bieber, Cleveland Guardians

Bieber won the AL Cy Young Award during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, and has two

other top-seven finishes for the award (2019 and 2022) on his resume.

However, a shoulder injury limited Bieber to 16 starts in 2021, and because of right elbow

inflammation, he only logged 128 innings in 2023. The Phillies would have to assess whether they

believe Bieber has just dealt with a couple injuries and will be healthy moving forward (like

Wheeler has been since signing) or is injury-prone. Nola’s greatest attribute has been his reliability,

so if you’re looking to replace him, you would want someone who you can trust to take the ball

every five days.