Trending News: Official Rosters! Braves top 30 prospects assignment projections, Where will your favorite prospect end up?

The winter blues are thankfully drawing to a close, and minor league baseball is on the horizon. In ten days the Gwinnett Stripers will open their season, kicking off another season of Atlanta Braves minor league baseball. We should get official rosters sometime next week, but for now all I can give you is my personal projections for where the top 30 prospects in the system wind up.

Gwinnett Stripers

1. AJ Smith-Shawver

2. Hurston Waldrep

10. Darius Vines

17. Dylan Dodd

24. Luke Waddell

Operating as Atlanta’s location to stash players to call to Atlanta at a moment’s notice, Gwinnett is naturally the place to see many of the Braves’s most recognizable prospects. That makes it as well a natural fit for Atlanta’s two top prospects, both of which I expect we’ll see in Atlanta this season. AJ Smith-Shawver is an obvious projection for the roster, as is Darius Vines and Dylan Dodd, but Hurston Waldrep’s status is a bit more unsure. Waldrep could very well start the season in Mississippi (and the Braves wouldn’t be afraid to call him straight up from there if they really wanted) however I think there is justification to move him to Gwinnett. His primary focus right now is going to be around developing his command, and it would be sensible for the Braves to have him do so in Triple-A where the baseball seams are identical to the major league ball. There is also justification for him to be in Mississippi, where the pitching rotation isn’t as deep and he won’t be as negatively impacted by poor command. However I still overall think that Atlanta’s likely intent to have him debut this season will have them push him to Triple-A early. Luke Waddell was held back in Double-A last season due to Vaughn Grissom and Braden Shewmake being prioritized, but with both now gone a starting infield spot will be a lock.

Mississippi Braves

3. Spencer Schwellenbach

5. Ignacio Alvarez

9. Drake Baldwin

27. Jesse Franklin

29. Hayden Harris

Drake Baldwin spent the very end of last season at Triple-A and didn’t at all look overmatched there, but I do think he goes back to Double-A to start the year. Related to what I said earlier, the Braves typically use Gwinnett as an extended MLB bench, and they’ll likely keep that catcher rotation full and let Baldwin develop at Double-A. Jesse Franklin could also see a promotion to Triple-A, especially given his age and time spent in Mississippi, but he is still finding his approach and would push other outfielders out of playing time if he was promoted. Schwellenbach is an aggressive push here and could also join Rome’s rotation to start the season, but given how good he looked in High-A at the end of last season and his age I think he will either start at Double-A or be moved up there expeditiously.

Rome Emperors

4. Owen Murphy

11. Jhancarlos Lara

12. Drue Hackenberg

15. Cade Kuehler

22. Sabin Ceballos

26. Lucas Braun

30. Kevin Kilpatrick Jr.

This was the hardest roster for me to project, as there are a handful of players who could have landed at a few different levels, but I ultimately settled here. There will be a lot of pitchers in Rome early in the season, but with stricter pitch limits in place through April they will have plenty of room to piggyback starters where needed. Murphy and Lara are obvious picks, but the college trio could end up at multiple spots on opening day. I initally had Hackenberg in Mississippi, but I think he will get at least a few starts in High-A as Atlanta really hasn’t had a history of pushing college guys straight to Double-A. Kuehler and Braun are solid locks for Rome, but if they showed out through camp behind the scenes they could be moved up or down accordingly.

Kevin Kilpatrick Jr. could end up promoted to Double-A, and given his age it may be likely they do so, but I think it would be wise for him to start out in Rome for a few weeks at least. Kilpatrick really struggled to end off last season and needs to prove he can actually consistently make contact with High-A pitching before I’d be confident to push him up to Mississippi. Sabin Ceballos could start out in Augusta, especially since he was a younger draftee for a college bat, but I think his experience at a major program makes him far too advanced for Single-A pitching.

Augusta GreenJackets

13. Diego Benitez

16. Seth Keller

18. Douglas Glod

19. Adam Maier

20. Isaiah Drake

21. Garrett Baumann

23. Didier Fuentes

28. Ambioris Tavarez

Augusta is going to be an interesting roster, and I went back-and-forth specifically on Luis Guanipa for awhile. I think he could play in Augusta this year, and may even debut opening day, but the Braves haven’t pushed their international guys like that in the past and Atlanta also still needs to find spots for guys like Jair Casanova and Tyler Collins to get playing time. Now, neither will be an obstacle once Guanipa is ready, but for now letting Guanipa get his work in at extended spring will allow the coaches to make the changes they need and lighten his adjustment to playing stateside. Isaiah Drake is not a lock for the roster either, as he did struggle in the Florida Complex League with contact. He’s also young, though the Braves haven’t seemed afraid to push guys to full season ball even if their hit tool is a bit behind the level. Adam Maier, assuming he is healthy to start the year, will get treated similarly to Spencer Schwellenbach last season. Didier Fuentes should be ready for his second crack at full season ball, and I want to see repeats of the level from Seth Keller and Ambioris Tavarez. Keller could get pushed to Rome given his first half success last season, but he struggled so much down the stretch and even if it was related to an injury it’s worth getting him real, healthy playing time at Single-A

Extended Spring Training

6. Luis Guanipa

25. Mario Baez

Both players will be features for the Florida Complex League roster. Baez should get the bump from the DSL to FCL this year, which starts a full month earlier this year. This will also likely contribute to Guanipa staying in the complex league to start the year, with the idea being he earns a full season call up in August once rookie ball is finished.

Injured List

7. JR Ritchie

8. David McCabe

22. Blake Burkhalter

Blake Burkhalter could be ready for opening day, but usually it’s more than 13 months between Tommy John and the return to the field, at least with Atlanta’s timeline for recovery. It’s entirely possible he ends up missing the entire year and only ever pitches sim games as they have done that with prospects recovering in the past.