Redressing: The Phillies Unveil Drastic Measures to Address Some Challenges for a Smooth 2024 Season

 

The Phillies were a terrific team in 2023, but there are definitely areas where they can improve moving forward.

The Philadelphia Phillies won the National League in 2022 and reached the NLCS in 2023. Despite a dismal season finale, the team enjoyed a relatively successful season. Few teams make back-to-back World Series appearances.

Many pieces are in place for the Phillies to have another strong season in 2024. If the team wants to compete in another World Series, they will need to improve in a number of areas.

The Phillies need to chase fewer pitches outside of the strike zone

One of the biggest issues over the course of the regular season — and was magnified in the NLCS — was Phillies hitters swinging at pitches out of the strike zone.

Dave Dombrowski made it clear that the front office was aware of this weakness. In his press conference at the conclusion of the Phillies’ season, he spoke on the issue in the final games of the NLCS saying “I don’t know if it was because they were such quality pitches that they were still fooled. I don’t know if timing was off. I don’t know if they were stressing too much or feeling pressure. I don’t really know that answer, but you could tell that we chased a lot more and they took advantage of it.”

Todd Zolecki of MLB.com indicated that the Phillies’ offense chased 36 percent of pitches outside the zone during NLCS Games 3-7. Nick Castellanos, Trea Turner, and Johan Rojas swung at 50 percent of the pitches they saw that were not strikes.

This wasn’t simply an issue for the team in the NLCS. During the regular season, Phillies batters swung at pitches beyond the strike zone at the fifth-highest rate in MLB (34.7 percent). This figure probably contributed to the team striking out at a rate that was more than 1% higher than the league average.

Discipline at the plate should be a goal for the squad to focus on as the season progresses. Nothing is more aggravating than seeing hitters strike out in non-competitive at-bats in crucial situations. It was one of the elements that contributed to the Phillies’ unfortunate postseason exit.

The Phillies’ defensive metrics remain a major concern

While it may have appeared that the Phillies’ defensive play improved significantly in 2023, the reality is that it only improved marginally. In terms of defensive runs saved, the club placed 25th in baseball in 2022, with -34 DRS. They were 26th in MLB with -30 DRS last season.

If you don’t enjoy using advanced analytics to measure performance, the Phillies’ fielding % in 2023 was 20th in MLB and was below the league average. Some players did make defensive strides, at least on the surface. Players such as Castellanos and Alec Bohm, who made some amazing plays this season, nevertheless, had negative defensive runs saved in 2023. They most likely made spectacular plays because they aren’t good enough defensively to make them on a regular basis.

Poor defense is surmountable if the Phillies score runs as they did in 2023, but it also allows opposition teams to linger or make unlikely comebacks, which can harm the club’s record.

The Phillies must improve their ability to keep runners on base

This is a shortcoming that can be traced in part to the MLB rule revisions that went into effect this season. Larger bases, disengagement rules, and the pitch clock all favor runners and make it more difficult for pitchers and catchers to keep players on base.

When it came to Phillies pitchers limiting advancement on the base paths in 2023, they finished in the lower half of the league. Using a new Baseball Savant statcast metric called pitcher base advances prevented — that takes into account the number of bases a pitcher prevents runners from advancing and the number of outs assigned to said pitcher — Phillies pitchers finished 16th in baseball.

Certain pitchers brought the club down in this area more than others. Aaron Nola and Craig Kimbrel were by far the worst at limiting baserunner advancement. Nola openly admitted last season that the pitch clock affected his ability to hold runners. Kimbrel — who, in all likelihood, has pitched his last inning in a Phillies uniform — was seen “intentionally balking” at times last season when runners reached second base.

Hopefully, Nola has adjusted to the pitch clock and will have all of spring training to fix any issues he still has with it. The pitch clock may have affected J.T. Realmuto as well. He recorded his lowest caught-stealing rate since his rookie season, catching just 22 percent of prospective base stealers.

During his career, the Phillies’ backstop has thrown out 34% of base runners attempting to steal. With the rule changes and wider bases, it’s unfair to criticize Realmuto for too much in a one-year sample size. If some of his pitchers are slower to the plate and are unable to hold runners on as they once did, he will be at a significant disadvantage.

In 2024, the Phillies should be a very excellent baseball team. They have already re-signed Nola to a seven-year contract. It’s reasonable to believe that the front management is continuously striving to improve the roster. If the players can improve in these three categories, the team can gain a competitive advantage without having to spend money on free agents or transfers.