When (if) the Sixers finally get healthy, should they shake up the starting lineup?
Buddy Hield has looked good as a starter while De’Anthony Melton has been out. What should the starting lineup look like when the Sixers are at (mostly) full strength?
It may be hard to remember, but the last time all five of these guys were healthy in the same game was Dec. 18. Still, the Sixers’ starting unit is statistically one of the best units in basketball.
The group of Tyrese Maxey, De’Anthony Melton, Nico Batum, Tobias Harris and Joel Embiid have run teams off the court, scoring 137.3 points per 100 possessions while allowing 103.9. They have a +33.3 point differential, which Cleaning the Glass puts in the 97th percentile of the league.
Despite the small sample size, the numbers pretty much say no, they shouldn’t mix up the starting lineup, right?
It’s certainly worth a discussion.
Part of it stems from the fact that the Sixers won’t really have time to figure out which lineup combinations work best with this year’s team. Because of a slew of injuries, primarily suffered by Embiid and Melton, the starting lineup has only shared the court for 467 possessions together, according to Cleaning the Glass.
That is currently 26th, meaning 25 different lineups have played more minutes together this year than the Sixers’ best five. If they do make a change to the group, it’ll likely be swapping out Melton for Buddy Hield, who just got here. Either course the Sixers choose here, they are not going to have a lot of data to go off of.
So what are the pros to inserting Hield into the starting lineup?
For starters, he profiles to be a perfect fit next to Embiid. The big fella has thrived his entire career playing next to two guards who can fly around screens and pull up from anywhere.
While Hield might not be as good a shooter as Seth Curry or JJ Redick, but he’s close enough, and is better than those two at putting the ball on the floor, which makes the pairing with Embiid tantalizing.
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Hield may still be learning his new team and plays, but starting him may be a more reliable option than Melton. While the team continues to preach that they are being cautious with Melton’s back injury, they didn’t expect him to be out this long.
The team has been giving him a “day-to-day” status despite the fact that he’s missed almost a month-and-a-half of action now. It’s a concerning injury history as well, as Melton dealt with back issues for much of last season.
So is sliding in a guard who’s more reliable to stay healthy, projects to fit well with an Embiid, and can give the team more creation off of dribble penetration actually a no-brainer?
Not exactly.
If the team ever does get fully healthy, the team may need some of Hield’s creation off the bench. When Embiid and Maxey have both been in the lineup, the offense has gotten bogged down with heavy bench-led backcourts.
Hield is a lot more scary to a second-unit defense than Patrick Beverley or Jaden Springer. While Hield is also a better ball handler, Melton has been more careful with the ball this year as well.
Melton’s turnover percentage is down to 8.9%, an impressive career-low given that he’s been given more responsibility in that area this season. Hield was at 11.1% for the Pacers this year and is up to 14% with the Sixers, but that’s only four games with a pretty depleted roster.
Defensively, Melton gets the edge here too. Hield has definitely come better as advertised as an on-ball defender. His 6-foot-4 frame, 6-9 wingspan and athleticism are enough to help him hold his own. He can get caught sleeping off the ball quite often though, something the Miami Heat took advantage repeatedly in last Wednesday’s loss.
Melton does not have those off-ball tendencies, and is a sturdy on-ball defender despite only being 6-foot-2.
So the Sixers are probably better off keeping things as is.
There are reasons to consider mixing things up: counting on Melton staying healthy doesn’t feel like the safest bet, and Hield next to Embiid could take an already elite offense to another level.
What the Sixers would sacrifice in continuity and defensive prowess doesn’t seem worth it. There’s no reason to fix what isn’t broken at the moment, but there’s no way to really know until everyone gets healthy.
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