Is hitting lefties a weakness for the Orioles going forward in this lineup?

Is the Orioles’ ability to hit lefties a potential weakness for this lineup?

The Orioles are loaded with lefty batters, so they might be challenged by teams that can stack lefty pitchers against them.

Throughout the offseason, there were loud cries throughout Birdland for the front office to make major additions to the pitching staff. However, we never heard anywhere near the same volume of cries for the Orioles to make major additions to their pool of position players. After all, the backbone of the successful rebuild of this team is the outstanding work Mike Elias & Co. did in building this extremely talent-laden group of hitters.

As we navigate through spring training, the majority of the Opening Day roster seems already set when it comes to position players. There’s no doubt that Adley Rutschman and James McCann will be the Orioles’ two backstops. The overwhelming expectation is that the two Ryans (Mountcastle and O’Hearn) will likely platoon at first, while young stars Jackson Holliday, Gunnar Henderson and Jordan Westburg rotate through the rest of the infield spots. We will once again see the trio of Austin Hays, Cedric Mullins and Anthony Santander patrolling the outfield in Baltimore. Ramón Urías and Jorge Mateo will presumably be the primary utility options off the bench.

However, the current construction of this roster does raise the question of whether this Orioles team might struggle to keep a balanced lineup. It’s no secret that Elias has a type when it comes to drafting and developing position players. Beyond his propensity to draft power-first college bats, Elias has consistently leaned toward left-handed hitters in building his core of Orioles position players.

Of the five first-round picks Elias has overseen since 2019, four (Heston Kjerstad, Colton Cowser, Holliday and Enrique Bradfield Jr.) are left-handed bats, while Adley hits primarily from the left as a switch hitter. Add in other high draft picks like Gunnar, Dylan Beavers and Kyle Stowers and it becomes clear the premium Elias places on sweet-swinging lefties.

On one hand, this emphasis on left-handed hitters makes sense for a team playing its home games in the redesigned Camden Yards. With the short porch of the flag court in right field, the deep power alley in right-center and the addition of the Great Wall of Baltimore in left, Camden Yards is now an imposing presence for right-handed hitters but a welcome sight to lefty sluggers. In fact, according to Statcast Park Factors, OPACY was the fourth-friendliest park in 2023 for left-handed home-run hitters.

Given he’s building a roster that plays 81 games in Baltimore—as well as another 20+ in lefty friendly parks in New York, Boston and Texas—it makes sense that Elias has leaned lefty heavy with a lot of his premium draft picks. The fact that four of his five first rounders (as well as Gunnar) could leave Spring Training with the big league team is another testament to the excellence of Elias & Co.’s scouting process.

On the other hand, leaning so heavily toward one side of the plate leaves the Orioles’ ability to hit left-handed pitching as a potential weakness. One or the other of Cowser and Kjerstad could also be in the bench mix, adding even more lefty-hitting weight to the roster.

The Orioles could construct a lineup against RHPs that combines Mullins, Rutschman, Henderson, O’Hearn, Santander, Holliday, Kjerstad and/or Cowser as the first seven or eight hitters. All of Mullins, Henderson and O’Hearn have career OPS numbers more than 125 points higher against righties than lefties—and each would’ve had an OPS above .800 vs RHP in 2023 but for Mullins’s injuries. Holliday and Cowser also put up similarly lopsided numbers against righties last season in the minors. All in all, the Orioles have the makings of a lineup that can dominate right-handed pitching.

The Orioles’ ability to dominate left-handed pitching is less of a certainty. There’s really only one hitter among the O’s everyday starters that has consistently shown they can crush opposing southpaws. Ryan Mountcastle was one of the best hitters against lefties in all of the MLB throughout the 2023 season. Among players with 150 ABs against LHPs, only William Contreras (190) and Mookie Betts (189) had a higher wRC+ vs. lefties than Mounty.

Mountcastle’s career numbers back this up as well. His .849 career OPS against lefties is on par with Hall of Famer Tony Pérez and perennial All-Star Carlos Beltrán. Were it not for the dip in power we saw from Mounty in 2022, as he adjusted to the Great Wall, his career numbers against lefties may be even more impressive. RMC is undoubtedly the lynchpin of this Orioles lineup against LHPs.

The rest of the hitters you would expect to mash lefties all have much more inconsistent track records. Austin Hays seems like someone who should be considered a lefty-masher, but the numbers just don’t bear that out. Sure, Hays is better against lefties, with a career OPS that is 40 points higher than against righties. However, the 2023 All-Star’s numbers are weighed down but second half slumps in 2022 and 2023—as in both years Hays’ body seemed to wear down as the season wore on.

Then there’s the lineup’s two switch-hitters in Rutschman and Santander. When it comes to hitting lefties, we don’t quite know what we’re going to get from Adley and Tony Taters. Santander had better slugging numbers against righties than lefties in both 2021 and 2023, but crushed lefties in 2022. Rutschman put up a similar Jekyll & Hyde act, struggling mightily against southpaws as a rookie before reversing his splits to the tune of a .950 OPS against LHPs last year.

The fact is we don’t know whether Hays can hold up for a whole season, or exactly what to expect from Adley and Tony when they’re hitting right-handed. Sure, there’s a world where Mountcastle stays healthy for a whole season, Hays makes major strides with his durability and Rutschman, Santander, Westburg and Mateo all provide above average contributions against southpaws. However, this is hardly a world we can be certain this Orioles team will live in. For a team that seems to have few uncertainties in the batter’s box heading into the 2024, how this lineup gels against LHPs is one to keep an eye on.

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