Why the Phillies should consider trading for Mike Trout

John Middleton, managing partner of the Philadelphia Phillies, could be found walking the media dining area at Citizens Bank Park long before the first game of the National League Championship Series began. When asked what he did four hours before a playoff game, he replied, “Pace.”

And after his club won the first two games before surprisingly blowing the series lead and losing in seven games to the Arizona Diamondbacks, you’d think there’s been a lot of pacing in the Phillies’ front office since then.

An offense that had dominated the first eight games of the postseason, winning seven of them, went cold, batting.197 runs in the final five games and only three runs in the final two home losses.

It was a dismal finale to an otherwise good season. After all, the team has now advanced to the World Series and the NLCS in consecutive seasons, both times falling short of a championship. Getting that close just fuels the drive to win it all, particularly for an owner like Middleton, who has demonstrated a willingness to spend money, and an executive like Dave Dombrowski, who is always in win-now mentality.

The Phillies have simply not been good enough. Despite defeating the Atlanta Braves in each of the previous two playoff series, they ended 14 games behind their division opponents both seasons. They need to improve during the regular season and a little bit more during the postseason.

Would the Angels even consider trading Trout? Would the Phillies consider trading for him?

It’s an outlandish idea, to be sure. To begin, during last week’s general managers meetings, Los Angeles Angels GM Perry Minasian made it clear that Trout would not be dealt.

“Mike Trout’s an Angel,” Minasian explained to MLB Network. “We’re thrilled to have Mike Trout on board.” He’s one of the best hitters in baseball history, if not the best, and we’re proud to be connected with him. I’ll say it again: Someone who will help us win a lot of games.”

Of course, there were whispers late in the season that the Angels would be willing to trade Trout if he requested to leave Los Angeles, prompting him to add, “These conversations happen every year, not just this year.” The idea, as it usually has been, is to take a couple weeks off in the offseason to clear my head, get in shape, get ready to play, and then proceed from there.”

However, neither of those statements is a complete denial. And if Shohei Ohtani signs with a new team in free agency in the coming months, which is the most likely scenario, the Angels’ entire landscape alters.

On the Phillies’ end, all indicators lean to an emphasis on pitching in the offseason. Dombrowski stated at the end-of-season news conference that the team’s first aim was to re-sign free agency pitcher Aaron Nola – or acquire a comparable pitcher. “We love him,” Dombrowski stated. “He’s been fantastic for the franchise.” He’s been a great pitcher for a long time. He’s a Philadelphia Phillie. We hope to keep him, but if not, it would be our first priority, in my opinion. We’d have to replace him.”

However, there has been conjecture that the Phillies may be willing to trade right fielder Nick Castellanos, who has three years and $60 million remaining on his contract. Dombrowski has also stated that Johan Rojas, the team’s center fielder throughout the playoffs, has not yet earned a berth in 2024 despite hitting.093 in October. While he hit.302 in 149 at-bats during the regular season and played excellent defense, Rojas also had a dismal 42-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

“I’m not going to anoint him a position with our big league club next year,” Dombrowski told reporters. “He has to be able to contribute some offense or he has to go down and continue to develop.”

And now we have the opportunity to speculate about a Trout trade.

Brandon Marsh could return to center field, freeing up left field for Trout, who should definitely go there at this juncture in his career. Alternatively, the Phillies might deal Castellanos, shift Marsh to right, and make do with Rojas and Cristian Pache in center. In any case, the outfield is far from secure.

Why Trout makes so much sense for the Phillies

The offense of the Philadelphia Phillies is, dare we say, a little overrated. Did you see the final two games of the NLCS? Or how about the final three games of the World Series in 2022, when the Phillies scored three runs and were no-hit by the Houston Astros in Game 4? While the Phillies finished fourth in the NL and sixth in the majors in runs scored in 2023, keep in mind that they play in a hitter’s paradise. They ranked 14th in the majors in road runs scored.

It’s a strong offensive, but it hasn’t consistently been a great offense. There’s no disputing the Phillies have the ability to heat up. They were invincible for the first two and a half rounds of the playoffs, before everything went sour in Phoenix, scoring 46 runs and blasting 19 home missiles in their first eight postseason games. In reality, the Phillies were spurred by the big ball, as they hit 11 against the Braves in the NLDS and six against the D-backs in the first two games.

They may have been overly homer-centric – despite Dombrowski’s stress that their attitude is not to “just hit the ball out of the park” – since a reduction in home runs coincided with an inability to get on base, resulting in their eventual downfall.

“We got into a home-run-hitting frenzy,” Dombrowski explained. “We were always hitting the ball out of the park.” We don’t preach it, but by the end of the season, there was where we were living and dying. We simply did not get enough runners on base in the majority of those five games.”

This brings us back to Trout, since what does he do best? Get to the base. Even in his weakest season, last year, his.367 on-base percentage would have ranked third on the Phillies, behind Bryce Harper and Marsh. Kyle Schwarber was the only other regular with a batting average above.330. Trout ranks ninth in OBP (and third in OPS, trailing only Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani) among hitters with at least 1,000 plate appearances over the last three seasons.

“We swung at way too many pitches out of the strike zone this year,” Dombrowski told reporters. “There are far too many. And I know we have chasers, but for whatever reason, they chased even more this year, which I believe we need to address. I know we’ll address it because we’ve already had meetings about it.”

Indeed, the Phillies had a 30.9% chase rate — 26th out of 30 teams. (The World Series champion Texas Rangers had the second-lowest chase rate in the majors.) The Phillies actually weren’t much better in this area in 2022, ranking 26th at 30.7%. Over the two seasons, they are ninth overall in OBP but just 18th in walk rate and 18th in strikeout rate.

Castellanos is the ringleader in this category, with a chase rate of 40.9%, which is among the lowest in the majors. He finished with 185 strikeouts and only 36 walks, so while he had excellent counting totals of 29 home runs and 106 RBIs, when you factor in his poor defense, he was only worth 1.5 WAR. This, combined with his streaky performance in the last two postseasons, fuels suspicion that the Phillies may move him, paving the door for Trout to arrive.

Is Trout still a game-changer?

Of course, the major question here is: What type of player is Trout now, as he approaches his 32nd season? Would any team be willing to take on his deal after he has averaged only 79 games played over the last three seasons?

Let’s start with the fundamentals:

He’s owed $248 million for seven more seasons ($35.45 million each year), meaning the contract spans his ages 32-38.

He is coming off his worst season, with a.858 OPS, 131 OPS+, and a career-high 28.7% strikeout rate in 82 games, including only one after July 3 due to a fractured hamate bone and chronic soreness.

The strikeout rate is the most alarming factor. He never struck out more than 20.4% of the time from 2016 to 2019. It has now hovered around 28% for three seasons in a row, indicating who he is: a batter who strikes out around 6% more frequently than the typical hitter.

He continues to draw walks and hit with power. He’s coming off a season in which he hit 40 home runs in 119 games and finished ninth in MVP voting.

In center field, his defensive numbers have ranged from ordinary to above average. He’s not Rojas or Marsh, but he’d be a major help in left field. While the Phillies would prefer to have Schwarber in the DH role as much as possible, he may be moved to left field on occasion to rest Trout’s legs.

Without re-signing or replacing Nola, the Phillies’ salary is anticipated to be $210 million to $215 million (approximately $230 million for tax purposes). It is expected to be roughly $246 million (pre-tax) in 2023.

Trout is one of the game’s top hitters, in my opinion. Even if his 2023 numbers were subpar (for him), his 134 wRC+ (weighted runs generated) would place him among the top 15 to 20 batters in the game. It’s also difficult not to believe that a move would re-energize Trout. Playing for a World Series contender rather than an afterthought should energize a seasoned player who has only made the playoffs once in his 13-year career. Maybe his finest days are behind him at 32, but he still has plenty of strong seasons left in him, including a couple more where he’s one of the top three or four hitters.

There’s also the fact that some of his injuries have been one-of-a-kind, or have occurred in different parts of his body: a torn calf muscle in 2021, a month missed in 2022 due to a bothersome back issue (from which he returned and hit.321 with 12 home runs in September), and then the broken hand in 2023.

Imagine Trout in the comfortable surroundings of Citizens Bank Park. Dombrowski has pursued star players in the past, and it’s difficult to find a bigger one than Mike Trout.