Why the Phillies Should stay away from Sonny Gray

Aaron Nola is now a free agent. While he has stated his desire to stay with the Philadelphia Phillies, they must be prepared for the chance that he signs elsewhere.

MLB source Jon Morosi said on Wednesday that if Nola left, the Phillies will be among the top contenders for Sonny Gray. Gray is not only an All-Star, but he was a college teammate of Philadelphia pitching coach Caleb Cotham.

Gray, despite his personal connection, would not be a good substitute for Nola for a lot of reasons.

For starters, Gray is 34 years old, which is quite old for a baseball player. Most players had retired by then, but Gray was still playing. If the Phillies sign him to a multi-year contract, they’re likely signing up for the decline portion of his career. There’s also a chance that he won’t be physically able to complete the deal, depending on how lengthy it is.

Gray’s age might be less of an issue if he were more durable, but he’s been prone to injuries throughout his career. Last year was his first complete season in the IL since 2019, and he’s become a yearly visitor. From 2016 to 2023 (excluding 2020), he averaged 26.4 starts and 146.3 innings each year, implying that he will be out for a significant portion of the season.

Finally, his lack of success in a large market is troubling. He’s thrived for small-market teams such as the Cincinnati Reds and Minnesota Twins, but his two seasons with the New York Yankees were his worst. Gray was 15-16 with a 4.51 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP for the Yankees, indicating that he struggles in high-pressure situations (he’s also 1-3 in six postseason starts, for what it’s worth).

Don’t get me wrong: Gray is a fantastic pitcher. He’s a three-time All-Star who just led the league in FIP, making him an excellent addition to any rotation. But, unlike Nola, he is not a durable, big-game pitcher in his prime.

It’s fine if the Phillies want to sign Gray. However, if they expect him to replace Nola, they will most likely be disappointed.