The Reds went 77-85 in 2024.
“The Reds look a lot like a .500 team in 2025, but they don’t appear to be a doomed, hopeless one, which is something,” wrote FanGraphs’ Dan Szymbroski.
Elly De La Cruz is projected to lead the Reds with an fWAR of 5.0. Zips projects the young superstar to slash .263/.335/.472 with 25 home runs and 54 stolen bases.
Interestingly enough, Matt McLain is projected to be the Reds’ second-best player after missing the entire 2024 season due to shoulder surgery.
The 25-year-old is projected to have an fWAR of 4.0 and slash .254/.340/.449 with 50 extra-base hits and 17 stolen bases.
ZiPS also really likes the Reds’ catching tandem of Tyler Stephenson and newly acquired Jose Trevino. They project the duo to have an fWAR of 3.6, the third-best on the team.
Outside of that, ZiPS isn’t high on the Reds lineup. “But while the rest of the lineup isn’t disastrous, it is a giant bucket of “meh,” Szymbroski wrote.
The trio of Noelvi Marte, Santiago Espinal, and Jeimer Candelario are projected to have an fWAR of just 0.7 at third base, the worst on the team.
On the pitching side, ZiPS projects Hunter Greene to have another strong season. They project the right-hander to go 8-7 with a 3.62 ERA and 172 strikeouts in 154 1/3 innings. His projected fWAR of 3.8 would match that of last season.
To complete the rotation, ZiPS forecasts Nick Martinez leading the way with a projected 2.6 fWAR, followed by Andrew Abbott at 1.8. Nick Lodolo and Brady Singer are both expected to contribute 1.3 fWAR, with Rhett Lowder rounding out the group at 0.8 fWAR.
ZiPS is not a fan of the Reds’ bullpen, projecting the bullpen to combine for a -0.3 fWAR.
“Outside of Alexis Díaz, Martinez when used in relief, and Ashcraft if he finds his way there, ZiPS finds the Reds relievers to be a lackluster mix of arms,” wrote Szymbroski. “The big exception might beTony Santillan, who pitched very well for the big club but walked five batters per game in the minors. Still, if he continues to pitch like he did in August and September, his projection will turn around fairly quickly.”
These projections align with the sentiments of Reds fans, underscoring the need for the team to acquire additional talent if they aim to contend in 2025.
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MLB.com Picks Reds’ Matt McLain To Be Reds Breakout Player in 2025
MLB.com picked a breakout player to watch for each team in 2025, and for the Reds, that breakout player is Matt McLain.
“McLain is looking to resume his promising career after he missed all of 2024 recovering from left shoulder surgery after a Spring Training mishap,” MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon wrote. “He is expected to be fully healthy after seeing some action in the Arizona Fall League. The 25-year-old was arguably Cincinnati’s best all-around player as a 2023 rookie while batting .290 with an .864 OPS, 16 homers, 50 RBIs and 14 steals. McLain, a plus defender, should also upgrade the team up the middle as he replaces Jonathan India and resumes his role as Elly De La Cruz’s double-play partner.”
FanGraphs released their projections for the for 2025 Reds and projected the 25-year-old McLain to slash .254/.340/.449 with 50 extra-base hits and 17 stolen bases.
The Reds are looking for McLain to be big a part of their lineup after missing all of last season.
You can see each team’s pick to break out in 2025 here.
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