Between the promotions of young players and the frequent trades to upgrade the major league roster, the farm system of the Atlanta Braves is widely considered to have fallen into the bottom third in baseball as far as quality and quantity.

But here at Braves Today, we’re bullish on both Atlanta’s talent in the minor leagues and the organization’s reputation and track record of developing that talent.

Here’s where we’d rank the top prospects in the farm system prior to the 2024 season.

(Criteria used for prospect eligibility is: less than 130 at-bats, 50 innings pitched, or 45 days on the MLB roster)

#1: RHP Hurston Waldrep

Scouting report: Waldrep, our number one prospect and an invitee to major league spring training, has a more defined arsenal at the moment than Smith-Shawver and probably the best non-fastball in the system in his splitter, giving him the top spot at the moment.

Waldrep does a good job to utilize his fastball up in the zone, which averages 95 and could probably touch triple digits early this year. The pitch has only average riding life and little horizontal movement, so establishing his secondaries will be key to keep hitters from teeing off on it. But the secondaries are led by a hellacious splitter, thrown in the mid-to-upper 80s from the same release point and tunnel as the fastball before absolutely falling of the table late. Waldrep also throws a vertical breaking curveball and a mostly horizontal slider with some late drop, giving himself a versatile four pitch mix in multiple velocity bands.

But there’s also some development points to iron out with Waldrep. Owing to his higher-effort delivery, the control’s not always been there and the occasional issues with locating his secondaries for strikes lead to not only walks, but hard hits as well. When he can’t successfully establish the splitter as a strike pitch, hitters can disregard it and force Waldrep to throw too many fastballs in the zone and try and force chase on the slider. It’ll be interesting to see how Atlanta approaches getting him MLB-ready, but every indication is that his fastball/splitter combo can play at the major league level now and we should see him at some point in time this season.

#2: RHP AJ Smith-Shawver

Scouting report: Smith-Shawver, believe it or not, is the best athlete in Atlanta’s system and just oozing with natural talent – that’s part of the reason he was able to pitch in MLB just two seasons after becoming a full-time pitcher. (Smith-Shawver, like a lot of Braves draftees, was a two-sport athlete in high school, playing quarterback on the football team as well as baseball).

It’s some of the best natural arm talent in the entire organization, with a fastball that sits at 95 mph and can hit 100, coming in at a low approach angle that makes it play up in the zone. The slider’s a dominant weapon, as well, sitting in the mid-to-upper 80s. Smith-Shawver brought the curveball back after not really using it in 2022, and both it and the changeup flash potential for a true four pitch mix in an incredibly athletic package.

Part of the reason for his placement at two rather than one has to do with the rawness of the profile – as we mentioned, due to his relative inexperience, Smith-Shawver still has more development to do than a typical pitcher who just debuted in MLB would normally have. But the natural arm talent and athleticism is undeniable, and he could easily be the best pitcher out of this entire farm system in three years.

BONUS: Who is Atlanta’s #1 prospect, AJ Smith-Shawver or Hurston Waldrep?

#3: RHP Spencer Schwellenbach

Scouting report: Schwellenbach’s another Tommy John guy, having the procedure his final year at Nebraska and not getting back onto the mound until the 2023 season. Unlike most TJ guys, his control came back before the swing and miss, with a low walk rate that actually improved when he went up to High-A Rome for his final starts of the year.

It’s an interesting package that I’m curious to see how Atlanta optimizes. The fastball has great velocity, sitting in the upper-90s and touching 99, but the life in the zone isn’t necessarily great and there’s probably some spin efficiencies that can found in the hand placement and delivery. That issue generating effective spin can be seen in the secondaries, as well, with an inconsistent slider that comes out in the mid to upper 80s, sometimes presenting as a cutter, as well as vertically breaking curveball and a pretty good changeup with solid fade in the mid-80s.

Given Atlanta’s history at shelving curveballs to improve someone’s slider, I see Schwellenbach spending a good portion of 2024 in Rome, working on that fastball/slider/changeup trio for more of a lateral game, with potential work to make the fastball a two-seamer or even a cutter if the IVB doesn’t tick up a bit as he gets farther away from the procedure. But if everything clicks to open the season, Schwellenbach’s my favorite to “break out” (as much as an organization’s #3 prospect can break out.)

#4: RHP Owen Murphy

Scouting report: Murphy another potential “frontline” starter for Atlanta in the future, showcasing a four pitch mix that, whole lacking some power at the moment has a lot of potential as he continues to physically develop and grow as a pitcher.

Led by a low-90s fastball that plays up when it’s elevated in the zone, Murphy covers four velocity bands with his upper-70s curveball, slider in the upper-80s, and a changeup that’s still in a development phase but has the potential to be an above-average pitch. It’s a clean delivery with good control, so the next step’s improvement of the tertiary pitches – the slider got significantly better through the 2023 season – and some additional velocity and power.

#5: RHP JR Ritchie

Scouting report: Ritchie, whose first full season was cut short after less than 14 innings due to Tommy John surgery, comes in at the bottom of the top tier of pitching prospects for the organization owing to the uncertainty around his return from injury.

Prior to the TJ, he featured a power fastball that sat in the mid-90s, touching 98 with great life up in the zone. The primary secondary was a sweepy-ish slider in the low-to-mid 80s, as well as a promising changeup that was mostly used against lefties, but saw great swing and miss when commanded well.

Expected back for competitive action in July or August, it’s great timing for Ritchie to shake off some rust, have a normal offseason to develop, and then potentially climb rapidly through the organization in 2025.

#6: SS Jose Perdomo

Scouting report: Perdomo is the crown jewel of Atlanta’s most recent J15 class, signing for $5M in January. Earning comparisons from a veteran international scout to a young Miguel Cabrera (which…don’t do that), Perdomo is seen as a potential major-league shortstop with great contact ability and power potential. If he has to move off of short, there’s multiple options, as the arm strength should allow him to kick out to third and the soft hands and actions should allow him to move in to second.

At this point, it’s mostly reps in professional baseball that are needed. Atlanta’s indicated that Perdomo will be paced this season, so don’t expect to see him leave the DSL, but “all bets are off” come 2025 if the scouting is right about his offensive prowess.

#7: SS/3B Ignacio Alvarez

Scouting report: Alvarez is seen by many external evaluators as a bit of a tweener – not enough power for third base while not slick enough defensively to play shortstop. The reality’s probably somewhere in the middle, with questions about his range but the arm and defensive actions to stick at shortstop and power numbers that, while not spectacular (102.2 90th percentile EV) are right in line with MLB averages.

What Alvarez does having going for him is a stellar hit tool, making contact at almost an 85% rate last season, and the power could potentially come once he plays in a more neutral ballpark than Rome’s – Alvarez had a .418 slugging on the road but a .364 at home and an OPS over 100 points higher when not in Rome. I’m hopeful for an assignment to AA Mississippi this season – not because it’s a good power park (it’s perhaps worse than Rome), but because Alvarez is an incredibly patient hitter who swings significantly less than average. That’s an approach that typically requires adjustments once it reaches the upper minors, and I want to see how his aggression at the plate changes when he faces better pitchers than can better execute in the fringes of the zone.

#8: OF Luis Guanipa

Scouting report: Guanipa was Atlanta’s main piece of last year’s international free agency class, with the outfielder signing for $2.5M. Shrugging off a poor finish to his DSL season, where he batted only .183 in the final month, Guanipa already has exceptional (age-adjusted) exit velocity numbers owing to his absurd bat speed. He’s incredibly fast, with 70-grades flashing when he runs down balls in the gap from centerfield, albeit it with arm strength that’s a bit lacking.

A move stateside should allow Atlanta’s player development an opportunity to continue to reinforce the contact numbers, which are good but not great, and leave him primed for a breakout in the lower levels of the minors this season. It’s a tantalising profile, with potentially four tools, but there’s still hit tool questions that just can’t be answered in the DSL (owing to the quality of opposing pitching.)

#9: 1B/3B David McCabe

Scouting report: McCabe’s probably the best power hitter in Atlanta’s farm system, but he’s not a one-trick pony: With a contact rate of over 80% on the season and 10 stolen bases, he’s shown some well-roundedness to his profile. His offensive game is much better as a left-handed hitter, with an OPS almost 140 points better than when he hits right-handed.

Primarily a first baseman in college, Atlanta’s worked him plenty at third base as a professional but his future to major league playtime is a first baseman and designated hitter, due to sub-standard range and poor transfers. Fortunately, Atlanta’s DH spot could come open as early as 2025.

#10: RHP Cade Kuehler

Scouting report: Kuehler threw a ton of pitches in college, but pared things down for his two professional starts with Augusta. The arsenal’s highlighted by a hellacious four-seam fastball, coming in at around 95 mph with an elite-level 20 inches of induced vertical break, allowing it to play up in the zone. He mostly focused on a power look as a pro, with a gyro slider in the mid-to-upper-80s and a low-to-mid-80s splitter that looks like a fastball out of the hand before dropping off the table late.

Whether or not Kuehler brings back the curveball and cutter he threw in college will be predicated on his ability to throw them for strikes, with biomechanical inconsistencies in the delivery adding deception but damaging the control a bit from where it needs to be. An ideal start to 2024 is opening up in High-A Rome followed by a late season promotion to Double-A Mississippi, but workload will be a concern – Kuehler threw only 80 innings combined between college and the minors in 2023 and probably can’t be counted on to go much over 100 or 110, potentially limiting his late-season availability.

#11: C David Baldwin

Feature: Prospect Drake Baldwin can establish himself as Travis d’Arnaud’s successor this spring

#12: RHP Drue Hackenberg

Scouting report: Hackenberg might be a sinker/slider guy with questionable college results, but he could potentially be the best version of a sinker/slider guy, and that’s why the Braves went out and got him in the 2nd round, paying him overslot to sign.

Hackenberg’s sinker had almost a foot and a half of armside run in college last season, where most MLB sinkers sit around 10 inches or so. The slider sits in the mid-80s and, while the shape isn’t always consistent, the two pitches combine for a groundball rate of over 50%, giving Hackenberg a look of potentially a better Bryce Elder. Key to improving is going to be consistency in the slider – does he want it to generate more swing-and-miss, as the sweepier version did in college, or maintain its shape as a groundball inducing option and possible improve the (currently lefty-only) changeup to better generate whiffs?

#13: RHP Jhancarlos Lara

Scouting report: Lara was older than your typical DSL participant in 2022, at the age of 19, but his performance was exceptional for any age – a 1.78 ERA in ten appearances. While the stats for his first seasons stateside weren’t as good as the DSL, he certainly improved as a pitcher, “flipping a switch” in late June and dominating down the stretch. Lara makes it work mostly from a power look, with a fastball in the upper-90s with good (not great) carry up in the zone and a hard slider in the upper-80s.

Developmental keys for this season will be both sharpening and better incorporating the changeup, which he flashed on occasion in 2023 but still threw less than 10% of the time, as well as the standard command and control improvements that all young pitchers need to show after they’ve physically acclimated to full-season ball.

#14: 3B Sebin Ceballos

Scouting report: Ceballos won a Rawlings Gold Glove in college for his work at third base for Oregon, and those defensive chops prompted Atlanta to draft him early on day two. He’ll reportedly be spending more time at shortstop in 2024, a valuable adjustment that would make him much more viable as a big-leaguer if he can make the transition. In college, his hit tool flashed, with a 91% zone-contact rate and less than 20% chase, but the exit velocities (even with a metal bat) were below-average and don’t portend well for even average power production as a professional.

His plus arm should allow Ceballos to survive as a range-limited shortstop with good hands, similar to current shortstop Orlando Arcia, should the transition work. If not, he’s got a fallback as a high average, lower power third base option, an atypical profile that can still be valuable in certain situations.

#15: RHP Darius Vines

Scouting report: Vines, another Bakersfield (CA) guy like Allan Winans, also played a similar role as a spot starter down the stretch for Atlanta, opening eyes in his MLB debut by going into Colorado’s Coors Field and holding the Rockies to two runs on four hits in six innings for the win. While the fastball velocity isn’t particularly impressive – just 90 mph – it plays well up in the strike zone (thanks to it’s above-average 17 inches of IVB) and liberal usage of a great low-80s changeup and a cutter, a pitch he added in the 2023 season. He also has a slider that gets decent results, despite being a clear 4th pitch.

It’s not a package that’ll overwhelm many hitters, but the combination of the sequencing and his plus control makes it good enough to turn over a lineup once or twice and provide value as a long reliever (which he did three times in the majors) or a spot starter.

#16: RHP Garrett Baumann

Scouting report: Baumann’s a monster physically, coming in at 6’8 and 245 pounds, and you can see that mass in his fastball velocity, which touched 97 in his brief pro debut. It’s an interesting shape, coming in with more horizontal movement than carry up in the zone, but still a potent offering that can miss bats. He throws a slider and a changeup, both sitting in the same velocity band (low-80s), with the changeup ahead of the inconsistent slider at the moment.

Atlanta obviously feels like the stuff is good enough to be competitive right away, as he made his only appearance post-draft in Single-A Augusta instead of at the complex, and I’m curious to see how quickly he moves through the system if he comes out firing to open 2024.

#17: OF Isaiah Drake

Scouting report: Drake’s a classic “prep speedster outfielder”, a very common profile in the lower minors, but despite his post-draft struggles, there’s reason to believe he’s got a better than average chance to work out. Both in MLB Draft League action and in rookie ball, it’s legitimate 80-grade speed from Drake, but that speed also covered for occasional lapses in defensive reads, routes, and reactions out in center field. The arm was a cannon, though (measurements of 93 mph), and the work ethic and tools are there to turn into a plus defender.

From an offensive standpoint, Drake’s youth was evident (he only turned 18 right before the draft), but there’s still plenty to like from the lefty. It’s a rather compact swing, with good bat speed and a quick (and quiet) pre-swing load. He did try to pull the ball a bit too much, but some improvements to the approach and the expected strength gains should have Drake as a high OBP threat that can get to at least average homer production while also threatening opposing defenses on the basepaths.

#18: RHP Lucas Braun

Scouting report: Braun had a great professional debut, coming in second only to fellow Braves prospect Hurston Waldrep in both innings (27) and strikeouts (23) amongst 2023 draftees. His best asset is his control – his walk rate was under 5% in his limited MiLB sample. The pitch mix doesn’t immediately jump off the page – a low-90s fastball with an average-looking curveball and slider, plus a changeup for lefties, but the pitch characteristics are great. The fastball has both above-average life up in the zone (17 inches of induced vertical break) plus nearly a foot of horizontal movement, making it tough to square up. The changeup gets good arm-side movement and drop, while both the curve and slider tunnel well and get located well.

It’s an appealing package that should play in a starting role, although given his listed 6’0, 185-lb frame and the fact he looks a bit smaller than that, there’s always the chance Atlanta moves him to a relief role out of workload concerns. I sure hope not, because he’s an ideal starting package that can have a high ceiling with a little more extra velo velocity or individual pitch improvement.

#19: LHP Dylan Dodd

Scouting report: Dodd, who struggled with health and ineffectiveness in 2023, needs to get back to the above-average strike throwing if he wants to cement himself as a legitimate big league option. At his best, like in spring training (1-0 record, 2.00 ERA w/ 20 Ks and 4 BBs in 18 innings), he pounds the strike zone with a four pitch mix. But if his strike percentage goes down and/or his locations falter, the lack of movement on his pitches leads him to get rocked.

For those pitches, it’s a low-90s fastball that can touch 96, but sits around 92. It’s most frequently paired with an low-80s slider that gets good swing and miss, as well as a low-80s changeup and a mid-80s cutter that isn’t thrown enough. Improvement in any of the areas of pitch velocity, movement, or fewer control lapses can get him back into a back-end starting role.

#20: RHP Blake Burkhalter

Scouting report: Burkhalter is a bulldog of a reliever, standing just six foot tall but with a fastball/cutter combo that absolutely destroys opposing hitters. The heater touches 99, with the combo of a low release point and a relatively small vertical approach angle that make it ply up in the zone. He pairs it with a low 90s cutter, taught to him by former Braves starter Tim Hudson (who was his college pitching coach) and a mid-80s changeup that’s decent, but not amazing, with some good movement back to the arm-side.

Announced as a starter at the draft, “Burky” is destined to return back to a relief role and could climb through the system quickly if the stuff returns to its previous form after Tommy John.

#21: RHP Allan Winans

Scouting report: The 28 year-old Winans finally got to make his debut in 2023 and seized the opportunity, with two quality starts in his six outings. He’s a higher floor, lower ceiling option, owing to his less than stellar velocity. Winans throws both two and four-seam fastballs, sitting around 90-mph with great extension that allow them to play up slightly from their 6th-percentile velo. The sinker has decent arm-side run and serves as more of a groundball-inducing option than a swing-and-miss pitch, enhanced by his premium control. Winans’ primary whiff pitch is a changeup, thrown in the low-80s with great tumble and location. He also can induce chase from lefties with a low-80s slider that he primarily throws down and in, in an ideal scenario.

While the overall ceiling is limited because of the velocity, Winans is a useful depth option for spot starts thanks to his control and sequencing, provided he’s protected from facing a lineup too often (like asking him to face the Mets in consecutive starts, where he was rocked in the second).

#22: LHP Hayden Harris

Scouting report: Harris is a great story, having spent time with the Savannah Bananas and using LinkedIn to get his MLB shot, but it’s not a charity case: The dude can shove. Despite the fastball velocity only hitting 93 last season, the combination of a low release point, a flat approach angle, and above-average induced vertical break makes the heater outperform its velocity when thrown up in the zone. Harris backs it with a late, hard slider that could play well in a relief role as soon as this season with a little more consistency.

#23: OF Cody Milligan

Scouting report: Milligan’s a sparkplug up the middle, bringing defensive versatility and great contact ability (87% zone-contact last season). Capable of playing all three outfield positions plus a capable second base, his blazing speed allows him to cover ground defensively as well as put pressure on opposing teams, both to extend base hits and in stolen base opportunities. One of the better contact hitters in the organization, it’s a high floor as an utility defender, but the lack of power probably holds him back from becoming a first division regular.

#24: SS Diego Benitez

Scouting report: Benitez was the crown jewel of Atlanta’s 2022 IFA crop, signing for $2.5M out of the Dominican. After a rough debut in the DSL, he fared better in the complex, especially as the season progressed and he understood how professional pitchers would attack him. Optimists can point to the continually dropping strikeout rate as the season progressed and the glimpses of raw power in the swing, but approach changes will be needed to fully get that power into games, as Benitez tends to chase a bit and settles for suboptimal contact at times, preventing him from elevating the ball.

Defensively, he makes flashy plays at times but also misses routine ones; internal evaluators we’ve spoken to think it’s more mental errors than fundamental skill gaps, however, and there’s belief he can be an average defensive shortstop with an above-average arm capable of sticking on the left side of the infield.

#25: RHP Seth Keller

Scouting report: Tough year for Keller, who hit the IL with the dreaded “forearm soreness” in late May and didn’t have the same command or velocity when he returned. His six starts preceding the injury were phenomenal, though (1-0, 1.17 ERA in 23 innings with 22 strikeouts to three walks), and he’s made the list as a “mulligan” of sorts on the post-injury stretch. It’s an interesting fastball/slider/splitter trio from the undersized righty (5’10, 180), with mid-90s velocity on his heater and wicked spin on the slider. He’s been working with Richmond, VA-based Adams Performance over the break and reportedly is up to 190 pounds and setting new PRs on the fastball, so big things could be in store with that extra velo and some better health from the righty.

#26: LHP Luis De Avila

Scouting report: The pitching equivalent of a Short King (5’9, 215), De Avila’s a groundball specialist thanks to his low-90s two-seamer and mid-80s changeup. He has a breaking ball, but the shape’s inconsistent and it’s a distant third option. What isn’t inconsistent is his ability to get plenty of groundballs, with a 62% GB mark in High-A in 2022 and a 52% mark in AA last season. Decent floor, and the ceiling could rise with some more velocity and/or command improvements (only a 61% strike rate last season).

#27: RHP Ian Mejia

Scouting report: Mejia’s a control specialist, with his 5.6% walk rate being one of the best in the entire organization last season, thanks to a >65% strike rate. He uses a tight slider in the mid-80s, thrown mostly down in the zone, to induce groundballs at a 40% clip, but he’s held back by the lack of velocity (90-92 mph) on his fastball – surprising, considering his 6’3, 205-lb frame. Adding more power to the profile, combined with improvements to the changeup that allow it to go from a LH-only pitch to one that’s usable in more counts and situations, can bring Mejia into starting contention.

#28: SS Mario Baez

Scouting report: Baez, another Short King (5’9), happened to give Atlanta’s DSL team above-average production despite being one of the youngest players on the roster, not turning 16 until after the DSL season concluded. Playing mostly shortstop, Baez handled himself admirably from a defensive perspective and produced good results at the plate, for what DSL statistics are worth.

The biggest thing to watch here is what happens in 2024 – does Atlanta slow play things and let him spend the entire summer at the complex in rookie ball, or does he quickly get pushed from North Port to Augusta? How he handles coming stateside could very well decide if he moves up the list after the season, or falls off entirely for 2025.

#29: RHP Adam Maier

Scouting report: Maier’s an enigma as a professional, having not taken the mound in an actual game owing to his modified Tommy John surgery (internal brace) he had after only 15.2 collegiate innings. Draft reports discuss his potential for three above-average pitches, with a sinker that can conceivably reach the high-90s and both a slider and changeup that are great at inducing weak groundballs.

Most 7th rounders wouldn’t still be on a prospect list after just barely over 60 innings after high school and two full missed seasons (2020 and 2023), but the potential for two plus secondaries that generate tons of groundballs keep Maier on the list for at least one more season.

#30: OF Jesse Franklin

Scouting report: The oft-injured Franklin has struggled to live up to the draft status, owing to Tommy John surgery that wiped out all but 15 games of his 2022 season and a hamstring strain that slowed him to open 2023.

Spending the entirety of his age 24-season in AA Mississippi, Franklin showed above-average power but also struggled to recognize spin on the outer third. A good fastball hitter, Franklin’s at his best offensively when he can catch a heater inside and turn on the ball, pulling it for a homer.

Defensively, both the speed and defense can play in center field if needed, but the still-recovering arm strength after 2022’s UCL injury means he’s relegated to left field if there’s a stronger defender in center.

#31: OF Douglas Glod:

Scouting report: Glod’s a Short King, coming in at 5’9 per Baseball Reference. Despite the relative lack of stature, Glod showed the potential to have either above-average or plus power, with a 104.4 mph 90th percentile exit velocity (against the MLB average of 103) at the age of 18. While the overall power production wasn’t great from a statistical standpoint, with only five homers, one of those came against heralded Yankees prospect Henry Lalane in the Florida Complex League finals, giving Atlanta the game one victory in a best-of-three series that they would sweep.

From a defensive standpoint, Glod’s had to move from centerfield to a corner as he’s slowed down and so there’s newfound concern about his overall defensive profile to accompany the worrying around his relative lack of contact (62.2% contact rate).