The Mets made many new additions to the starting rotation, but the quality of those additions shows how much they’re counting on Senga in the upcoming season.
Looking objectively at the many additions the New York Mets made to their rotation this offseason, one thing becomes abundantly clear. They’re really counting on Kodai Senga in 2025. Frankie Montas probably won’t be any better than Luis Severino. Betting on Clay Holmes to make it as a starter rather than bring back a reliable innings eater like Jose Quintana is a huge gamble.
Yet in all the discussion and debate about the rotation, the man who should be the lynchpin of it is often overlooked. Yes, the last memory everyone has of Senga is watching him get lit up like a Christmas tree against the Dodgers in the NLCS. Sure, he only made one regular season appearance as his 2024 season was marred by injuries, but that’s no reason to forget what Senga is truly capable of.
Kodai Senga’s return is equivalent to the Mets acquiring an ace
The Mets have a pitcher with a 2.98 ERA, who posted 10.93 K/9, a 3.63 FIP, and earned 3.4 fWAR joining their 2025 rotation who wasn’t a part of the 2024 unit. No, it’s not Corbin Burnes whose 2.92 ERA, 8.38 K/9, 3.55 FIP, and 3.7 fWAR in 2024 were very comparable. It’s not Max Fried and his 3.25 ERA, 8.57 K/9, 3.33 FIP, and 3.4 fWAR either.
Nope, instead of either of those $200+ million dollar men, it’s Kodai Senga rejoining the rotation and bringing that level of production, which is what he put up in 2023, with him. If all else in the rotation is more or less the same, as last year’s group that made the NLCS, it’s not hard to look at this pseudo-acquisition as a major boon for the Mets.
Considering how similar Senga’s 2023 performance was to that of the aces at the top of this offseason’s free agent class, it becomes clear why the Mets weren’t in on Burnes or Fried. They already have a pitcher they view as their ace.
While the injuries last season were disappointing, none were the type of chronic or degenerative ailments that should cause issues for the right-hander going forward. That means his health should be no more of a question mark than any other starting pitcher.
Given the types of pitchers the Mets added to replace their departures it’s unlikely that the rest of the rotation will be appreciably better than the 2024 version. To the chagrin of many, the team never really pursued a true ace this offseason.
The reason for all these moves is clear. The Mets believe they already have that ace on the roster, and they’re betting big on his return in 2025 as their big “addition” to the rotation. Make no mistake, the Mets have bet the house on Kodai Senga performing at an elite level in 2025, and they could hit the jackpot.
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