In a match between Western Conference playoff candidates, the Nuggets take on the Warriors.

The Denver Nuggets need to defeat the Golden State Warriors, a team that is a strong contender in the Western Conference, in order to earn a well-earned multi-day break. Steph Curry is in the best shape of his career, and the Warriors are only one game behind Denver in the standings. The Nuggets will have their hands full stopping a squad that can score more points than any team in the NBA, and new acquisition Chris Paul is settling in nicely with the group. Even without starting point guard Jamal Murray, the Nuggets need to collect their last bit of energy to win the game and take care of the court tonight. It’s the final game of a cruel stretch.

The Essentials

Who: Denver Nuggets (7-1) vs Golden State Warriors (6-2)

When: 8:00 PM MS

The Three Things

Key Matchup: Steph Curry vs Everyone

Steph Curry is coming off a Player of the Week award and is shooting 47.5% on 12+ threes a game this season, a ridiculous number that will drop down at some point – and that time, in Denver’s opinion, ought to be tonight. The Nuggets trailed the Pelicans by 20 points at one point in the first half of their most recent game, and Curry is unlikely to go cold in the second half as New Orleans did. Curry is averaging over 31 points per game, while no one else on the team has more than 17. Nikola Jokic will do his thing and threaten another 30-point triple-double, but the game will be close. But the Nuggets don’t have Jamal Murray to go berserk and can’t rely on Julian Strawther to do it for the second game in a row either.

MPJ will be a difficult cover for Golden State, but Denver’s best chance is to make the Warriors struggle with their almost 40 three-point attempts per game entering this matchup. Because the Warriors are fifth in the league in assists, Denver’s perimeter defenders must play on a string, rotate, and trust each other. It won’t just be KCP on Curry; everyone can help limit Golden State’s easiest path to victory.

The thing to remember: Rebound the ball. 

lengthy misses mean lengthy rebounds, and the Nuggets must hustle. The Warriors are seventh in Offensive Rebounding this season, and Denver can’t afford to give them second chances if they force a miss on the initial shot. Guards will be especially important since Jokic will be in the paint, but the Warriors have the third-fewest points in the paint of any team this season. The Nuggets win by team rebounding – they miss, grab the ball, and get out in transition. That’s what you should be greedy about tonight.

The thing to bet: Parlay – MPJ over 3.5 threes (+135) and Steph over 4.5 threes (-145) = +266 total.

I believe we’re going to have a shootout. Michael Porter Jr. will get his shot up, and Steph Curry is averaging 6 made threes a game. It’s not a sure thing, but MPJ made four or more threes in two of the last three games, and I anticipate him to shoot them early and often. If you think the volume will be there, the parlay at +266 pays off nicely.

124-116 is the predicted score. Denver. Golden State has a Hall of Famer on the court, but Denver does as well, and it’s early in the season. The Nuggets will have a little more gas than the Warriors, which should be enough to make the difference.