Shocker: Phillies’ Shocking Arbitration Case Emerges amidst five(5) Others….

As the new year approaches, teams and arbitration-eligible players — in the Phillies’ case, five of them — have two weeks to reach an agreement on a contract for the 2024 season. If they do not, both parties must submit a compensation number for the upcoming season, and a hearing is set for January 29 to February 16.

A contract can still be achieved in the meantime, but if no agreement is reached before the hearing date, a panel of arbitrators hears each side’s case and then chooses one of the two values as the player’s compensation for the forthcoming season.

The Phillies began the offseason with eight arbitration-eligible players. They agreed to one-year deals with three of them — Jake Cave, Dylan Covey and Garrett Stubbs — on November 17, which was the deadline for teams to decide whether or not to tender contracts to players on their 40-man roster who haven’t yet earned enough MLB service time to reach free agency.

Cave ($1M), Covey and Stubbs ($850,000) each agreed to one-year deals. The Phils’ five remaining arbitration-eligible players are Jeff Hoffman, Ranger Suarez, Alec Bohm, Gregory Soto and Edmundo Sosa.

The only one going through the process for the final time is Hoffman, a key figure in the Phillies’ bullpen in 2023. It will be arbitration year 2 of 3 for Suarez and Soto and the first time for Bohm and Sosa.

Salaries through the arbitration process are primarily based on comparable players who have signed contracts in recent seasons. MLBTradeRumors’ Matt Swartz has used an algorithm to project arbitration salaries for the last 13 years and it’s proven to be extremely accurate. Here is what it projects for the five Phillies, with their 2023 salary in parentheses:

Hoffman: $2.1 million ($1.3M)

Suarez: $4.7 million ($2.95M)

Soto: $4.9 million ($3.925M)

Sosa: $1.7 million ($950K)

Bohm: $4.3 million ($748K)

Teams often find common ground with their players the week leading up to the exchange of figures to avoid going to arbitration. The Phillies did so with Rhys Hoskins, Suarez, Soto and Sosa on January 13, 2023, hours before the deadline to exchange figures.

They did not reach agreements on that day with their two other eligible players, Jose Alvarado and Seranthony Dominguez, but signed Alvarado to a three-year extension and Dominguez to a two-year extension the next month. Similarly, they could look to extend Suarez over the next two months.

Notable Phillies who aren’t yet eligible for arbitration but will be after the 2024 season are Bryson Stott, Brandon Marsh and Cristian Pache.