Reds are more likely to Deal Former All-Star Baseman NL Rookie of the Year

India

The Reds seem more poised to trade the former NL Rookie of the Year.

2 reasons Reds should trade Jonathan India this offseason, 2 reasons they  shouldn't

Jonathan India, the Reds’ 2021 National League Rookie of the Year, saw his name circulate in the rumor mill over the summer and has already been mentioned as a trade candidate in the early parts of the offseason. Recent rumors from USA Today’s Bob Nightengale and ESPN’s Jeff Passan do little to dispel the notion that the 26-year-old could change hands this winter. Over the weekend, Nightengale wrote that Cincinnati is “expected” to move India this offseason, while Passan writes this morning that the Reds have been telling potential trade partners that India is the “odd man out” in their infield surplus.

On the field, the Reds boast an outstanding crop of young talent. Beyond India, previous first-round pick Matt McLain, top prospect Elly De La Cruz, and trade additions Spencer Steer, Noelvi Marte, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand all saw action.

McLain was the most outstanding of the group, batting.290/.357/.507 with 16 home runs and 14 steals in 403 at-bats. De La Cruz cooled off after a blazing start, but he still managed a.235/.300/.410 line with 13 homers and 35 steals in 98 games, all while generating intriguing batted-ball numbers per Statcast and displaying his elite speed. Steer, meanwhile, alternated between first base, second base, third base, and the outfield corners, hitting.271/.356/.464 with 23 home runs. Encarnacion-Strand (.270/.328/.477, 13 homers in 241 plate appearances) and Marte (.316/.366/.456 in 123 plate appearances) saw less time but performed admirably in their major league debuts.

It’s a tremendously skilled group with a lot of defensive versatility. Encarnacion-Strand appears to be settling in at first base and designated hitter, and Steer clearly found success at the plate in a nomadic, jack-of-all-trades role (while being a below-average fielder at all five positions). De La Cruz, Marte, and McLain are all capable of playing shortstop, third base, or second base. De La Cruz saw the most time at shortstop, although his defensive evaluations were lower than McLain’s. The Reds can experiment with the exact alignment in spring training, but regardless of who plays which position, it’s difficult not to be optimistic about Cincinnati’s burgeoning core of young infielders.

Given that wealth of talent, it becomes easier to see how India could be the odd man out. He’s yet to replicate his excellent showing in that aforementioned Rookie of the Year campaign when he batted .269/.376/.459 with 21 home runs, 23 doubles, 12 steals and an 11.3% walk rate. He’s since turned in a .246/.333/.394 batting line in 960 plate appearances, showing diminished power and a walk rate about three percentage points lower than his rookie mark. Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average both cast him as a poor defender at his position.

Due to his former draft status (fifth overall in 2018), prospect pedigree and that Rookie of the Year showing, many fans have speculated that India could be used to help the Reds acquire an upgrade for the front portion of their rotation. However, given India’s struggles with the glove and (over the past two seasons) at the plate, it doesn’t seem all that likely that he’d command a strong rotation piece on his own — or even as the headliner in a package also including lesser prospects.

India is entering his first arbitration season, projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $3.7M in 2024, and remains controllable for another three seasons. Those factors, plus his age, are perhaps the Reds’ strongest selling points in trade talks. That said, India feels more like a buy-low candidate than many onlookers might expect for someone who looked like a Reds building block just two years ago. The absolute dearth of quality infield options on the free agent market will play to the Reds’ benefit in drumming up interest, but it seems unlikely that India will fetch them a major upgrade to the starting rotation.

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