Insightful Digest: In Steamer’s 2024 projections, three Phillies are expected to improve and three to decline.
The Philadelphia Phillies had several players have career years during the 2023 MLB season, putting up some outstanding stats. At the same time, some players battled a lot and will want to put last season behind them and return stronger and better in 2024.
So, who will return to earth, and how many will make a spectacular comeback?
FanGraphs has released the yearly Steamer estimates for 2024, so we’ll take a look at three Phillies players who are expected to improve next season and three who are expected to regress following a fantastic 2023 season.
Bryce Harper
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Many may have forgotten, despite his heroics down the stretch and in the playoffs, but Bryce Harper had a rough start in 2023 after recovering from Tommy John surgery. That much was predicted, considering that he returned from the procedure far sooner than projected, much to the amazement of many Phillies fans and, most likely, Harper himself. Nonetheless, by the conclusion of the season, he had put up good numbers across the board.
Given Harper’s track record, there’s no doubt he’ll rebound in a big way in 2024, which is exactly what Steamer estimates show. His home run total will jump from 21 to 30, his RBI total will rise from 72 to 97, and his WAR will rise from 3.3 to 4.0.
Surprisingly, his batting average will take a little hit, falling from .293 to .283, but if the Phillies get the dominant, full-fledged, run-producing Harper back in 2024, nobody will be complaining.
Aaron Nola
The Phillies’ ace Aaron Nola really had a little subpar season in 2023 by his usual standards. For someone who has consistently maintained an ERA under four for the majority of his career, he produced an unexpected 4.46 ERA last season while allowing a career-high 32 home runs. At the very least, he still had a good 12-9 winning record, but he was far from dominant.
Now fresh off his recent signing with the Phillies, Nola will certainly be pumped up for the 2024 season and want to show the ballclub his worth. Steamer’s projections seem to agree with that notion as they predict his ERA to revert back closer to his career average with a solid 3.80 ERA and his home run total to decrease back down to 28.
The Phillies will look to their ace to help carry the team to their third consecutive postseason berth in 2024.
Gregory Soto
After being acquired in the 2022-23 offseason from the Detroit Tigers, Gregory Soto was supposed to be part of the Phillies’ dominant four in the bullpen along with José Alvarado, Seranthony Domínguez, and Craig Kimbrel. However, Soto often struggled with control and command during the 2023 season. As a result, he was less trusted in high-leverage situations, limiting his overall effectiveness and usage in the end.
With one season under his belt, Steamer projects greater optimism for Soto in 2024, as his ERA is set to improve by an entire run, going from 4.62 to 3.60. In addition, his left-on-base percentage will increase drastically from 59.1 percent to 75.2 percent, keeping more inherited runners from scoring as a result.
Some of his control worries may still be present, with a WHIP going up to around 1.29, but at least he will be more successful in doing the job he’s supposed to do: preventing runs from scoring.
Three Phillies are expected to decline in 2024.
Nick Castellanos
Nick Castellanos put together a strong season with the Phillies in 2023, setting career highs in RBI with 106 and stolen bases with 11. At the same time, he maintained a solid .272 batting average, smashing 29 home runs in the process. More importantly, he was the driving force behind the Phillies’ offensive dominance in their NLDS series win against the Atlanta Braves.
However, many also witnessed Castellanos’ streakiness that reared its head multiple times during his impressive 2023 season. In particular, in the playoffs, he followed his spectacular NLDS showing with a complete dud of a performance during the NLCS against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
As a result, Steamer’s projections believe that his streakiness won’t help him maintain his 2023 numbers for 2024, as his home runs will drop to 24, his RBI to 90, his stolen bases to seven, and his batting average to .260. On the bright side, with Castellanos often prone to the strikeout last season, at least his strikeout rate is set to improve from 27.6 percent to 24.9 percent.
Alvarado, José
José Alvarado was the Phillies’ top reliever in 2023, with a 1.74 ERA, 10 saves, a 1.16 WHIP, and a 37.2 percent strikeout rate. He was instrumental in the Phillies’ second consecutive postseason appearance, notably bailing out team closer Craig Kimbrel down the stretch when he began to falter.
But, according to Steamer, Alvarado will regress significantly in 2024 after a strong 2023 season. His ERA will rise to 3.02, he will allow a career-high six home runs, and his strikeout rate will drop to 31.5 percent.
This could be related to Steamer’s prediction that Alvarado will take over as the Phillies’ full-time closer. With the increased strain and responsibility of finishing out ballgames on a regular basis for the first time in his career, he may succumb to it before settling into the role. On the plus side, they feel he will be successful in the end, totaling 23 saves.
Jeff Hoffman
Jeff Hoffman was another reliever who had a career year with the Phillies in 2023. After struggling as a starter at the outset of his career, he began to improve after he was switched to a reliever with the Cincinnati Reds the previous two seasons.
On April 2, 2023, Hoffman signed a minor-league contract to begin the 2023 season. His contract was eventually chosen, and he was called up in early May. He never looked back after that.
In the end, Hoffman had his greatest season yet, posting a 5-2 record with a 2.41 ERA and 0.92 WHIP while allowing only three home runs and striking out 69 batters in 52 1/3 innings pitched.
However, Steamer’s projections for Hoffman in 2024 aren’t looking good, with his ERA anticipated to rise to 3.86 and his WHIP rising to 1.27. He’ll also allow 10 home runs over the course of the season. Those numbers would reflect his statistical line during his time with the Reds, suggesting that Steamer believes his outstanding season last year was an outlier rather than a breakthrough.
These Fangraphs Steamer projections are obviously only predictions of what Phillies players might produce this season. In the end, how well it will play out will be determined by their individual performances. Nonetheless, with the Phillies aiming to return to World Series contention in 2024, let’s hope they only get better from here.
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