Scout on top 2 Red Sox prospects: ‘Dangerous pop,’ ‘5-tool All-Star’ talent

Roman Anthony was just one year removed from high school ball in 2023 when he advanced all the way to Double-A Portland after beginning the season at Low-A Salem.

The Red Sox center fielder prospect recorded an outstanding 17.5% walk percentage and .403 on-base percentage in 106 games (491 plate appearances) in his first full season of pro ball. Only two major leaguers — Juan Soto (18.6%) and Kyle Schwarber (17.5%) — had walk rates that high. Obviously it’s much more difficult to sustain that type of walk percentage in the big leagues but it shows the type of strike zone discipline Anthony had as just a 19-year-old playing against much older competition. He was more than three years younger than the average player at High A and more than four and a half years younger than the average Double-A player.

Anthony ranks No. 1 on MassLive’s Top 25 Red Sox prospect list because of his advanced strike zone discipline and how hard he hit the ball to all fields in ‘23. He had a .565 slugging percentage (13 homers, 18 doubles, three triples) in 289 plate appearances between High-A Greenville and Portland.

“Future dangerous pop inside the park and out of the park,” an MLB scout said.

Anthony barely beat out 21-year-old shortstop Marcelo Mayer for the top spot. Mayer is ranked No. 2. A strong argument could be made for either Anthony or Mayer who struggled at Portland in ‘23 but also dealt with a shoulder impingement that shortened his season. Mayer controls the strike zone as well. He has walked in 13% of his 889 plate appearances in the minors.

“The injury to the shoulder should not temper this future five-tool All-Star potential shortstop path to the major leagues where his skills and intangibles will enable above-average impact on both sides of the ball,” an MLB scout said.

This week’s MassLive prospect ranking schedule:

• Monday, Feb. 5: Prospects 21-25
• Tuesday, Feb. 6: Prospects 16-20
• Wednesday, Feb. 7: Prospects 11-15
• Thursday, Feb. 8: Prospects 6-10
• Friday, Feb. 9: Prospects 1-5 (see below)

5. Ceddanne Rafaela, CF/SS

Age: 23

Bats/Throws: R/R

How acquired: Signed as an amateur international free agent July 2, 2017, out of Curacao for $10,000.

2023 stats: Double-A Portland: .294 batting average, .332 on-base percentage, .441 slugging percentage, .773 OPS, six homers, 18 doubles, 40 runs, 37 RBIs, 14 walks, 55 strikeouts, 30 steals in 60 games (266 plate appearances). Triple-A Worcester: .312 batting average, .370 on-base percentage, .618 slugging percentage, .988 OPS, 14 homers, 13 doubles, three triples, 40 runs, 42 RBIs, 12 walks, 48 strikeouts in 48 games (219 plate appearances); Boston Red Sox: 20-for-83 (.241 batting average), .281 on-base percentage, .386 slugging percentage, .666 OPS, two homers, six doubles, 11 runs, five RBIs, four walks, 28 strikeouts, three stolen bases in 28 games (89 plate appearances).

ETA: Made MLB debut in 2023

Report: Rafaela is a super aggressive hitter, leading to him chasing pitches outside of the strike zone. It is something he often did during his 89-plate appearance sample size in the majors last season. Rafaela, who earned a promotion in late August, had a 38.8% chase percentage, 29.0% whiff percentage, 31.5% strikeout percentage and 4.5% walk percentage. He has walked in just 5.7% of his 1,852 plate appearances in the minors. He has areas to work on still, especially plate discipline, and so he could use more time developing at Triple-A Worcester where he’ll likely begin the 2024 season.

But he should get a chance eventually this season. Right now, the Red Sox are thin in outfield depth. Tyler O’Neill, who was acquired in a trade with the Cardinals, has been on the injured list 12 different times in his six major league seasons. Meanwhile, rookie outfielder Wilyer Abreu, who likely will make the Opening Day roster, has had some recurring hamstring issues. Rafaela could be called upon quickly if one of those two outfielders lands on the IL.

He has such a high ceiling because of his power, speed, athleticism and ability to play Gold Glove center field (while also being capable of above-average defense at shortstop). He has led all Red Sox minor leaguers in extra-base hits each of the past seasons. Rafaela’s quick hands and defensive ability stood out to Trevor Story.

MLB scout from another organization: “Freaky talented at two skilled positions with the legs and speed to impact the game at the top of the order. A threat on the bases at all times. Stolen base instincts, above-average potential Gold Glove center fielder and a solid defender at shortstop with Mookie Betts athletic-profile comps. Driven kid. Sox may slow down his ETA as he has moved quickly. Greatest need is patience, discipline with strike zone and pitch selection. Aggressive early-count approach to tweak his strikeouts into OBP and walks to utilize his speed. All-Star upside. Floor: Solid everyday 1, 2 hole bat who will produce when he figures out who he is at the plate.”

4. Miguel Bleis, CF

Age: 19

Bats/Throws: R/R

How acquired: Signed as an amateur international free agent Jan. 15, 2021, out of the Dominican Republic for $1.5 million.

2023 stats: .230 batting average, .282 on-base percentage, .325 slugging percentage, .607 OPS, one homer, three doubles, three triples, 18 runs, 16 RBIs, 10 walks, 38 strikeouts in 31 games (142 plate appearances).

ETA: 2027

Report: Bleis, who will turn 20 on March 1, was limited to just 31 games in 2023 because of shoulder surgery. He was placed on the injured list at Low-A Salem after straining his shoulder on a swing May 31, then underwent surgery in June for a left shoulder subluxation.

Director of player development Brian Abraham said Bleis should be ready for spring training (full go). The injury also happened before when he was younger but he didn’t have any issues with it last year before the swing.

The Red Sox like his power potential, bat-to-ball skills, jumps in center field and strong arm. His pitch recognition still needs work (24.3% strikeout percentage, 7.2% walk per percentage) but he has five-tool potential. MLB Pipeline grades his power 60, arm 55, running 55, fielding 55 and hit tool 50 on the 20-80 grading scale. MLB Pipeline lists 50 as average and 60 as above average.

MLB scout from another organization: “Injury proneness is a concern; yet very young still with tools across the board to develop a power-speed, package with uber athleticism. Overall feel for the game with sound defensive skills and instincts in center field. … Hard contact stands out. Compact stroke with the chance to supply plus contact to project a ceiling of 25-plus homer power in center field or right field; yet he must be patient making up for lost time and developing his strike zone (approach) to upgrade strikeout/walk ratio. Should be on many other team’s radar as a get now with best years in front of them maturing into a solid everyday major league player. … Loves to play.”

3. Kyle Teel, C

Age: 21

Bats/Throws: L/R

How acquired: Drafted in the first round (14th overall) in 2023 out of Virginia. Signed for $4 million.

2023 stats: Florida Complex League: 3-for-7 (.429), .556 on-base percentage, one homer, two runs, two RBIs, two walks, no strikeouts in three games. High-A Greenville: 20-for-53 (.377 batting average), .485 on-base percentage, .453 slugging percentage, .938 OPS, four doubles, 10 runs, nine RBIs, 11 walks, 11 strikeouts, one steal in 14 games (66 plate appearances). Double-A Portland: 10-for-31 (.323), .462 on-base percentage, .484 slugging percentage, .945 OPS, one homer, two doubles, three runs, 11 RBIs, eight walks, 11 strikeouts, two steals in nine games (39 plate appearances).

ETA: Late 2024, early 2025

Report: Teel made it to Double-A Portland less than two months after the Red Sox drafted him 14th overall. He has the chance to be a special player. Senior vice president of baseball operations Ben Crockett last August called Teel “a huge addition” to the Red Sox organization and someone who can influence a game both on offense and defense. Crockett praised Teel’s athleticism. Baseball America already lists him as the best defensive catcher in the Red Sox system. He has an especially strong arm.

The Athletic’s Keith Law recently wrote that Teel is an “unusually good athlete” for a catcher. Law, who ranked Teel No. 54 on his top 100 prospect list, also added that Teel could “make some All-Star teams.” Baseball America ranks Teel No. 62 on its Top 100 list while MLB Pipeline has him listed at No. 40 overall and the fifth best catching prospect in baseball.

Chris Clegg, an evaluator for SoxProspects.com, posted a video of Teel on Sept. 1 throwing out a runner on a low-and-away pitch. Clegg wrote, “Teel posted a 1.9 pop time on this and had the guy out by 2 steps. No catcher should be able to post those pop times on a pitch low and away in the dirt. Excellent framer, excellent pop times. Teel is gonna be a major league catcher for a long time.”

Teel will turn 22 on Feb. 15. Expect him to begin his first full professional season at Portland. The Red Sox should not rush him as explained in a Dec. 13 MassLive story. It would be ideal for him to play a complete season in the minors.

MLB scout from another organization: “Maybe the sleeper of the whole pack due to his ability to contribute on both sides of the ball. Defense polished out of college. Very mature mentally and physically. Sound left-handed swing with the ability to generate 20-plus home runs, contact and better offense than most we see. Defense is above average at present, ahead of his bat, which could get him to the major leagues quicker than expected. Projects a strong feel for handling pitchers, which he takes a great deal of pride in. Very talented kid with a terrific package of physical skills and intangibles with sound athleticism. The manager will love this kid taking charge and lending a strong trust at a key position.”

2. Marcelo Mayer, SS

Age: 21

Bats/Throws: L/R

How acquired: Drafted in first round (fourth overall) in 2022 out of Eastlake High in California. Signed for $6.664 million.

2023 stats: High-A Greenville: .290 batting average, .366 on-base percentage, .524 slugging percentage, .890 OPS, seven homers, 11 doubles, one triple, 23 runs, 34 RBIs, 17 walks, 37 strikeouts, five steals in 35 games (164 plate appearances); Double-A Portland: .189 batting average, .254 on-base percentage, .355 slugging percentage, .609 OPS, six homers, eight doubles, one triple, 20 runs, 20 RBIs, 15 walks, 49 strikeouts in 43 games (190 plate appearances).

ETA: Late 2024, early 2025

Report: Mayer had a challenging season. He was placed on the injured list (shoulder inflammation) Aug. 5 and the Red Sox eventually decided in early September to shut him down. But the shoulder issue dated back to May 7 when he fell rounding second base after driving a hit into the gap.

Mayer batted .337 with  .414 on-base percentage, .582 slugging percentage, four homers, 10 doubles, one triple and 23 RBIs in 23 games for Greenville before the injury. He took a week off after hurting his shoulder, then batted 9-for-47 (.191) over his next 12 games at Greenville before receiving a promotion to Portland on May 30. He struggled even more at Portland, posting a .189/.254/.355/.609 line in 43 games.

He struck out 24 times in 111 plate appearances (21.6%) before the shoulder injury. He punched out 62 times in 243 plate appearances (25.5%) after his shoulder impingement.

He turned 21 on Dec. 12. As a 20-year-old at Double-A, he was more than three and a half years younger than the average player. He was more than two years younger than the average player at High A.

Both his injury and age need to be part of the context when evaluating his 2023 season. The upside is great. He has the ability to be an above-average hitter with power as well as an above-average defender. MLB Pipeline wrote, “He has the smooth actions, quick hands and plus arm to make all the plays at the position. The only knock on his game is his below-average speed, though he makes up for it with a quick first step and good instincts on the bases and in the field.”

Like Anthony, he has strong plate discipline. He has posted a 13.0% walk percentage in his minor league career so far (220 walks, 885 plate appearances). In an interview with MassLive in Portland last July, Mayer said the stat most important to him is exit velocity. “If I hit the ball hard more times than not, I think that’s going to lead to more success,” Mayer said. “For me, it’s just going out there, getting a good pitch and trying to hit it hard.”

He has leadership skills and an ability to be a strong communicator in the clubhouse as someone who speaks both English and Spanish.

MLB scout from another organization: “The injury to the shoulder should not temper this future five-tool All-Star potential shortstop path to the major leagues where his skills and intangibles will enable above-average impact on both sides of the ball. Mental makeup, intangibles on both sides of the ball should play some in the core of a lineup as a middle infield talent. Contact. Power projection. His speed will excite on top of plus shortstop defense. Very poised with feel, drive and passion.”

1. Roman Anthony, CF

Age: 19

Bats/Throws: L/R

How acquired: Drafted in the compensation second round (79th overall) in 2022 out of Stoneman Douglas High in Florida. Signed for $2.5 million.

2023 stats: Low-A Salem: .228 batting average, .376 on-base percentage, .317 slugging percentage, .693 OPS, one homer, nine doubles, one triple, 27 runs, 18 RBIs, 38 walks, 38 strikeouts, 11 steals in 42 games (202 plate appearances); High-A Greenville: .294 batting average, .412 on-base percentage, .569 slugging percentage, .981 OPS, 12 homers, 14 doubles, three triples, 41 runs, 38 RBIs, 40 walks, 75 strikeouts, two steals in 54 games (245 plate appearances); Double-A Portland: 12-for-35 (.343 batting average), .477 on-base percentage, .543 slugging percentage, 1.020 OPS, one homer, four doubles, 10 runs, eight RBIs, eight walks, six strikeouts, three steals in 10 games (44 plate appearances).

ETA: Late 2024, early 2025

Report: Baseball America ranks Anthony as having the best strike zone discipline among Red Sox minor leaguers. It was evident during his first full year of pro ball in 2023 when he posted an outstanding 17.5% walk percentage.

Anthony, a left-handed hitter, did struggle some against left-handed pitchers. He went 14-for-64 (.219 batting average) with a 29.3% strikeout percentage vs. southpaws, including going 6-for-24 (.250) with 12 strikeouts (34.3% K rate) at Greenville. But he also walked in 16 of his 82 plate appearances against lefties between the three levels, good for an excellent 19.5% walk percentage. He had 11 walks in 35 plate appearances (31.4% walk percentage) vs. left-handed pitchers at Greenville.

Anthony’s basic stats across the board, except for on-base percentage (.376), weren’t great at Low-A Salem. He went 36-for-158 (.228 batting average). But the 6-foot-3, 200-pounder was not only making hard contact. He also showed great plate discipline, which helped him pile up as many walks (38) as strikeouts (38). The Red Sox knew he’d see more strikes (leading to him swinging more) in High A.

He hits the ball hard to all fields with impressive exit velocities. He has a chance to stay in center field. Baseball America’s 2027 Red Sox projected lineup has him as the team’s right fielder. Even if he doesn’t stay up the middle, and ends up in right field, he’ll provide important defensive value as right field at Fenway is one of the most difficult right fields in baseball.

MLB scout from another organization: “Young, mature, athletic with more strength coming naturally. Long levers create a little length in swing at times. Sound concept of the strike zone. Discipline at his age will carry him to plus hit skills. Contact/power to all fields type. Future dangerous pop inside the park and out of the park. Impressive 2023 adjustments seen and hung in vs left-handed pitchers. Defense has kept him in left field, yet may pop up in either corner with instinct and deceptive speed that enables base running contributions. Presence, poise and overall passion, feel at 19 qualify as future above average major league player.”