The Alabama Crimson Tide is a double-digit underdog against the defending National Champion UConn Huskies. Among the Final Four teams, Alabama is not the longest longshot to win the NCAA Tournament. That honor belongs to North Carolina State. But outside of each team’s fans, almost no one is picking Alabama and NCSU to advance to the national title game.

Based on ESPN Analytics, the Crimson Tide has a 28% probability of beating the Huskies. Even for a staunch Alabama fan, there is no basis in data to suggest the Tide has better than a 28% chance. To win the Crimson Tide will likely need its best game and the Huskies will have to play less than their best.

• Reason No. 2 – Alabama’s top players, if not the entire roster, believe they can beat the Huskies. The late-season version of the Alabama Crimson Tide has a ‘refuse to lose’ mentality. Nate Oats deserves credit for his team’s mental toughness. Oats and his players fear no team and will not be awed by anything UConn does.

• Reason No. 3 – The primary reason for Alabama’s strong belief is the team’s confidence in its ‘Brain Trust’. Relying on analytics is a given in college basketball, but no team has a data science and game-planning group equal to the Crimson Tide. And no team uses a data trove as boldly as Nate Oats.

• Reason No. 4 – Much has been made about Alabama being ranked by Ken Pomeroy at No. 105 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. UConn ranked No. 4, indicates the Huskies are a serious defensive threat while the Crimson Tide is not. Bart Torvik’s calculation from the Tide’s four NCAA Tournament games provides a more accurate assessment. For the same stat, Torvik has the Crimson Tide at No. 56. Even that ranking would have been much lower if the Crimson Tide had not hit a defensive cruise button in the second half against Charleston. The bottom line is Alabama now, is a far better defensive team than it was before the NCAA Tournament.

t, but an upset claim is credible.

Seven reasons the Alabama Crimson Tide will beat UConn

• Reason No. 1 – UConn is an outstanding team on a 10-game NCAA Tournament winning streak. For the last year and a couple of weeks, the Huskies are 41-3. But UConn is not invincible. Seton Hall beat them by 15 points in December and Creighton won 85-66 against the Huskies in late February. For the record, UConn Center, Donovan Clingan missed the last 16 minutes of the Seton Hall game with an injury.

• Reason No. 2 – Alabama’s top players, if not the entire roster, believe they can beat the Huskies. The late-season version of the Alabama Crimson Tide has a ‘refuse to lose’ mentality. Nate Oats deserves credit for his team’s mental toughness. Oats and his players fear no team and will not be awed by anything UConn does.

• Reason No. 3 – The primary reason for Alabama’s strong belief is the team’s confidence in its ‘Brain Trust’. Relying on analytics is a given in college basketball, but no team has a data science and game-planning group equal to the Crimson Tide. And no team uses a data trove as boldly as Nate Oats.

• Reason No. 4 – Much has been made about Alabama being ranked by Ken Pomeroy at No. 105 in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. UConn ranked No. 4, indicates the Huskies are a serious defensive threat while the Crimson Tide is not. Bart Torvik’s calculation from the Tide’s four NCAA Tournament games provides a more accurate assessment. For the same stat, Torvik has the Crimson Tide at No. 56. Even that ranking would have been much lower if the Crimson Tide had not hit a defensive cruise button in the second half against Charleston. The bottom line is Alabama now, is a far better defensive team than it was before the NCAA Tournament.