NBA Executive Expresses Strong Opinion on Heat’s Star Potential Fit

It remains to be seen which path the Chicago Bulls will take as the season progresses. Although two straight wins have injected life into the franchise, there’s no denying that the squad is in dire need of change.

With an aging core that doesn’t mesh well, the Bulls face a critical decision that could define their future. One of the players they may look to move is five-time All-Star DeMar DeRozan, who one NBA executive said could be a perfect fit for the Miami Heat.

The Heat lost out big time in the Damian Lillard sweepstakes this past offseason. Lillard publicly expressed a desire to be traded to the Heat, but the franchise wasn’t able to conjure up a proposal enticing enough to convince the Portland Trail Blazers to part with their superstar. Instead, Lillard ended up with one of the Heat’s biggest rivals, the Milwaukee Bucks.

Since then, the Heat have been looking to add another ace to their core of Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, and Tyler Herro. While there have been plenty of trade rumors involving the Heat, there is one that may actually happen.

At age 34, DeRozan remains one of the league’s best bucket-getters, capable of putting points on the board regardless of what coverage is thrown at him. This elite skill, though, will come at a price.

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20 observations about the Miami Heat from the first 20 games

The Heat have played 20 games this season, and there have already been some surprises, disappointments, and controversy. Here are 20 observations from the season’s first half.

Last season, the Miami Heat were 9-11 after 20 games. This season is twenty games in? 11-9. The Heat are better than they were last season, both in terms of record and for other reasons we’ll discuss later.

That doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll return to the Finals, but Pat Riley and company prefer to evaluate the team at this stage in the season. Here are 20 observations from the season’s first 20 games.

No NBA club has played more road games this season than the Heat, who have played 12 of their first 20 away from Kaseya Center. This implies that they will play the majority of the rest of their season at home, including eight of thirteen games in December.

This season, the Heat are 6-6 on the road and boast the league’s third-best defense on the road versus the league’s 27th-rated defense at home. (Two nail-biters against the Pacers this weekend dropped them to 21st at home.) If defense travels, the Heat’s road defense should be more representative than their home defense in the future.

The Heat were 19th in offensive rating and seventh in defensive rating before to two games against the Pacers in which they scored 271 points and allowed 276 points. Following those two games, the Heat have an offensive rating of 11 and a defense rating of 16. This serves as a reminder that we’re still working with small samples that can be skewed by a couple of outlier performances. Don’t be fooled by the statistics; the Heat are likely closer to where they were prior to the Pacers mini-series (just below average offensive, top 10 defense) than they are now.

Only the Miami Heat and the Oklahoma City Thunder are shooting 38% on 3-pointers, getting to the line at least 22 times per game, and have a turnover differential of at least plus-2 this season.

Making the East’s All-Star team this season will be difficult. Yes, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant have left for the Western Conference, but perennial All-Star Damian Lillard has joined the Bucks, and other young players have made significant contributions.

Right now, three players are lock to start: Joel Embiid, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Jayson Tatum. Tyrese Haliburton is most likely the other lock. Donovan Mitchell has a solid probability of being selected as an All-Star starter again. Bam Adebayo, Jimmy Butler, Jaylen Brown, Jrue Holiday, Derrick White, Lillard, Trae Young, Jalen Brunson, Tyrese Maxey, LaMelo Ball, Mikal Bridges, Scottie Barnes, Paolo Banchero, and Franz Wagner are the seven reserve players.

Adebayo has a good argument to make his third All-Star team, but it’s far from a lock (especially if his hip issue continues to bother him).

Miami’s current starting lineup of Kyle Lowry, Duncan Robinson, Butler, Haywood Highsmith and Adebayo is out-scoring teams by 11.7 points per 100 possessions, ninth-best among lineups that have logged as many minutes. While they don’t come close to the amount of time together as starting fives in Boston or Sacramento, they could by the end of the season if they stay healthy. And, of course, if that remains the Heat’s starting five…

 Herro is expected to return from a sprained right ankle soon, at which time the Heat will have a tough decision to make. Herro has started 75 games since last season, including the first eight this season when he was putting up career-highs in points, rebounds and assists. But the starting lineup also seems to click better when Robinson takes his place as a low-usage shooting guard. Spoelstra was already manipulating his rotations to give Herro time running the second unit. Could he ask Herro to reprise his role as sixth man and make a permanent change with Duncan starting? It’s had to at least cross Spoelstra’s mind.

More of Duncan Robinson’s field goals are coming from 2-point range than ever. He’s developed a helpful off-the-bounce game to attack closeouts and keep defenses honest, but his bread-and-butter is still the 3-point shot. After a two-year slump, Robinson’s 3-point percentage has climbed back to 45%.

My only note: Robinson should keep doing what makes him great. There have been a handful of times when he has passed up 3-point looks to dribble to the basket. It’s fun to show off the new skills, but taking and making 3s is the top job requirement.

 Adebayo is averaging career highs in points (22.3), shot attempts (15.8) and free-throw attempts (7) this season, but his shot chart is a bit troubling. He is moving further away from the basket, with 33% of his shots coming at the rim compared to 40% last season and 20% of his shots coming from the long mid-range compared to 10% last season. Adebayo’s field goal percentage hasn’t changed much (52.2% this season from 54% last season) but it might be unrealistic to expect it to remain steady with that shot diet. He needs to work on getting closer to the basket more often.

 Spoelstra has settled into a rotation with Love as the backup center behind Adebayo, and that’s largely because of his fit with Butler. Love is a natural pick-and-pop partner with Butler, and the Heat are out-scoring opponents by 9.2 points per 100 possessions with Butler and Love on the court (versus 1.3 points per 100 in the Butler-plus-Bam minutes).

 inserting Highsmith into the starting lineup, the Heat are 10-5 in the games he’s played. What he adds defensively is nothing short of vital. He’s defended some of the league’s top scorers and when he, Butler and Adebayo are going full-tilt it forms a Bermuda Triangle where opponent possessions go to die.

But to remain a long-term starter in this league, Highsmith needs to provide something on offense. After a hot start, he’s back to making about 33% of his 3-pointers – which is in line with his career average despite an offseason in which he trained with Duncan Robinson to get those percentages up. Opponents already play off of him in the corners, but he needs to make them pay by taking and making those shots more consistently.

The bright red was an eye-sore and made it difficult to track the game. Points for creativity, but hopefully we can get something a little easier on the eyes next season.

 After missing 10 of Miami’s first 11 games with a knee injury, Martin in his last four games has scored 22, 14, 14 and 18 points. Moments like this, where he starts in the corner and drives baseline, are classic Caleb.

Despite preseason concerns at the position, Kyle Lowry and Josh Richardson have been fine at point guard. Lowry has played in 19 of Miami’s 20 games and Richardson, after a slow start, has found his footing as a table-setter and opportunistic scorer. Lowry is fourth on the Heat in plus-minus, according to Cleaning the Glass, while Richardson has scored in double-digits in seven straight games.

 The reigning Eastern Conference Rookie of the Month has been among the most pleasant surprises for the Heat this season. He’s not only good for a rookie, he’s just good. Jaquez has earned a nightly role because of his ability to defend, play off the ball and make plays for others. His floor game resembles a player beyond his years. Jaquez is consistently making the right read and toes the line between aggressive and unselfish.

The emergence of Jaquez potentially changes a lot for the Heat, including their standing among the East’s elite and approach to February’s trade deadline.

Unlike Jaquez, Jovic has yet to carve out a role in the rotation. While his skillset as a 6-foot-10 forward who can dribble, pass and make open shots is exciting, he needs to develop as a defender. Though there have been some rumblings about his frustrations about a lack of playing time, Jovic has openly prioritized the team’s winning over his own role. Butler remarked a few weeks ago that Jovic will be part of the franchise in the future and long after he’s gone. Patience is key when it comes to Jovic, who is still the youngest player on the roster by at least two years.

 Though Miami prefers to play just two centers most nights (Adebayo and Love), when Speolstra has recently had to go deeper into the bench he’s opted for Robinson over Bryant. Robinson, at this stage, is a more reliable defender than Bryant, and so he will get Spoelstra’s trust. With Adebayo sidelined against the Pacers Saturday, Spoelstra started Robinson in his spot. We can assume that will be the case if Adebayo has to miss any more time going forward.