Starr’s Seven Questions: Would the Red Sox be better off trading for Jarren Duran?

Starr’s Seven Questions: Would the Red Sox be better off trading for Jarren Duran?

Welcome to Spring Training 2024. Before pitchers and catchers officially report on Wednesday, I have some questions:

The San Diego Padres are among several teams sniffing around Jarren Duran.

But while the Padres certainly need Duran – their only established outfielder is Fernando Tatis Jr. – the Red Sox do, too. Somehow, he’s actually one of Boston’s more veteran outfielders, at least, in terms of playing for this team. They have enough outfield options to trade him, but almost all of them come with significant risk.

Free-agent signee Tyler O’Neill has averaged 80 games per season over his six years in the Majors and doesn’t offer much in the way of power-hitting. Rookies Ceddanne Rafaela and Wilyer Abreu have each played 28 career games in the bigs, too small of a sample size to pass judgment.

Masataka Yoshida was considered a bat-first player before he arrived from Japan last year. He was minus-8 Outs Above Average and ranked in the third MLB percentile in Arm Value and 23rd in Sprint Speed. Rob Refsnyder is always a solid option off the bench, but has never been an everyday player; his 89 games last year were nearly double his previous career high. He does absolutely demolish left-handed pitching, though.

A Duran trade wouldn’t be much of a cost-cutting transaction; he’s still making the league minimum. He’ll be arbitration eligible in 2025, and a free agent in 2029.

Perhaps the Red Sox don’t think he can sustain last season’s performance – the ZiPs projections indicate as much – in which case, trading him could turn out to be a savvy ‘Sell high’ move, especially if they got some young, club-controlled pitching out of the deal. Over his first two sporadic seasons in the Majors, Duran struggled in almost every aspect of the game. He didn’t make last year’s Opening Day roster, but with Kiké Hernández in the infield and eventually traded, and Adam Duvall out for months with a wrist fracture, Duran became an everyday player, and an impressive one, at that.

In one of the most stunning turnarounds by a young player in recent franchise history, he hit .295 with a .828 OPS, 24 doubles, two triples, eight home runs, 46 runs, and 40 RBI. He led the team with 24 stolen bases, the most by a Red Sox player since Mookie Betts swiped 30 in 2018, and was in the 95th MLB percentile in Sprint Speed.

Parting with Duran would also make sense if the Red Sox truly believe that Roman Anthony is on the verge of knocking on debut’s door. Of course, Anthony has only ascended as far as Double-A Portland, and that was late enough in the ‘23 MiLB season that he only played 10 games. He’s also 19 years old, and the Red Sox aren’t going to rush the development of a prospect that young, and risk wasting such immense potential.

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