Stunner: Finally The Phillies’ Rotation has been Set for 2024, but will top Prospect Mick Abel still get a Shot?

The Phillies’ No. 2 prospect might throw in the big leagues in 2024, but not to start the season.

Barring any trades or injuries, the Philadelphia Phillies’ starting rotation for the 2024 season appears to be set. Last spring, the chatter among the front office, the media, and the fans was that top prospect Andrew Painter might make the Opening Day roster. That was interrupted when Painter tore his UCL and required Tommy John surgery to repair his throwing elbow.

Mick Abel, the Phillies’ No. 2 overall prospect, has been waiting in the wings throughout. Do the Phillies intend to put Abel in the rotation this season, as spring approaches? The answer, however, is not as easy as yes or no. Dave Dombrowski informed reporters that the pitching prospect will not be competing for a spot in the rotation out of Spring Training, but he did not rule out later-season contributions.

None of this should come as a surprise, given that the Phillies’ starting rotation appears to be set. This summer, the club re-signed Aaron Nola to a seven-year contract. In 2024, Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suárez, Taijuan Walker, and Cristopher Sánchez will all be back. Moving into the 2017 season, the team appears to be satisfied with their staff.

There is still plenty of time between now and Opening Day, so the club may acquire a starter via trade or free agent signing — improbable given the market — or a current starter might suffer an injury.

Even if that were the case, Abel getting the nod early on seems unlikely. While he showed flashes of promise last season and even represented the Phillies in the All-Star Futures Game in July, he still has some progress to make before he’s ready for the Major Leagues.

In 23 minor league starts — 22 for Double-A Reading and one for Triple-A Lehigh Valley — in 2023, the 21-year-old posted a 4.37 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP. The ERA was inflated by a handful of bad games. The right-hander had some impressive outings as well. In his second to last start with Reading, Abel pitched six shutout innings and struck out seven hitters while allowing just three baserunners.

The biggest area in which Abel must improve is his command. Last season, his walk rate was over five batters per nine innings. His above-average strikeout rate can really be an asset if the 2020 first-round pick can limit the number of free passes he issues. Dombrowski lauded Abel’s talent level and said that he has seen players in the past find something mid-season.

As of now, the Phillies are in a good spot with their rotation. There’s no pressure on Abel to make the roster or help the big league club this season. If he takes the next step, however, the Phillies’ brass will have some decisions to make. If it gets to that point, no one will complain about too much starting pitching.