The Atlanta Braves to start evaluating and pushing these young arms in the minors to fill losses in starting pitching with the UCL injury to starting pitcher Spencer Strider, the Braves are stuck in a perilous situation…..

With the UCL injury to starting pitcher Spencer Strider that could potentially wipe out his entire 2024 and 2025 seasons, the Atlanta Braves have work to do.

You see, Strider was being counted on to anchor a rotation that was already facing the potential losses of Max Fried, who is a free agent after 2024, and Charlie Morton, who will both turn 41 shortly after the season and has no remaining contractual control.

But with Strider potentially unavailable for the entire season, the Braves are stuck in a perilous situation: Chris Sale and Reynaldo López are the only current starters who could carry over to 2024, and both of those pitchers have questions about availability, owing to Sale’s recent injury history and workload questions for López after multiple years of relief. Bryce Elder, who made all but one start in the majors in 2023, is likely to spend the full season in Atlanta as well.

The Braves profile to have plenty of rotation options to get through the summer – last season, the Braves used thirteen “true starters” and three relievers, working as openers, to get through a season full of rotation injuries to Fried, Kyle Wright, and others.

The best performing of those starters are still in the organization, while Michael Soroka, Jared Shuster, Kolby Allard, and Yonny Chirinos are all with new teams for 2024.

No, Atlanta’s not going to be hurting for innings in 2025 – between Darius Vines, Dylan Dodd, and Allan Winans, they can supplement Atlanta’s existing rotation depth to provide innings over the summer and “backfill” the rotation to get through 162 games.

But there’s two groups of pitchers that Atlanta needs to prioritize getting major league time in 2024 to prepare them for 2025.

The first is some of the top prospects, specifically, AJ Smith-Shawver and Hurston Waldrep.

Smith-Shawver, only 21, debuted in the majors last June after starting the year in High-A Rome. A phenomenal athlete that’s still newer to pitching as compared to his peers – Alex Anthopoulos remarked to the media that he was the equivalent of a sophomore in college and pitching in major league baseball – he got by through sheer athleticism and arm talent.

But a full offseason of development for the youngster showed in Grapefruit League action, as he profiled as a more well-rounded pitcher with a legitimate four-pitch mix, with his changeup flashing as a legit weapon in spring training. He started the season in AAA Gwinnett and has made only one start, going two-thirds of an inning against Lousiville with three runs allowed on two hits and three walks. But that lone start notwithstanding, he’s one of the highest ceiling pitchers in the organization and needs opportunities to both push his workload – he pitched a total of 87.1 regular-season innings last year – and test his newer pitch mix and ‘stuff’ against major league hitters in 2024.

Waldrep, Atlanta’s first round pick out of the University of Florida last season, made a meteoric rise through the minors last season after the draft, pitching at all four levels of Atlanta’s system. The 22-year-old pitched 29.1 innings last season and struck out 41 batters, both highs for any 2023 draftee, as he rose from Single-A Augusta all the way to AAA Gwinnett for his final start.

After being a non-roster invitee to spring training and getting into one game, Waldrep began the season at AA Mississippi. Owing to his advanced stuff – his splitter is potentially the best non-fastball in Atlanta’s system – as well as his healthy workload, pitching a combined 131 innings last season between college and professional ball, he’s the best bet to be able to handle a full season at the major league level if needed.

But it’s crucial for Atlanta to let him evaluate the quality of his stuff against major leaguers and get comfortable at the highest level this season, because he’s going to be needed.

The second are the two major league starters coming off of catastrophic injuries in Ian Anderson and Huascar Ynoa. Both pitchers have proven themselves at the major league level, with Anderson taking a no-hitter through the 5th inning of game three of the 2021 World Series and Ynoa having a dominant seven-game stretch in early 2021 where he pitched to a 4-1 record and 2.29 ERA before he broke his hand punching a bullpen bench and missed three months.

Ynoa, who had Tommy John surgery in September of 2022, is back to competitive action, assigned to AAA Gwinnett. (He’s actually the scheduled starter for Tuesday afternoon on the road at Omaha.) One of the big things to watch for with Ynoa is if he’s developed a reliable third pitch, as well as where his velocity settles in.

During his 2021 “breakout” season, Ynoa was primarily a two-pitch pitcher, throwing his 96 mph fastball just under 50% of the time and his mid-80s slider about the same. The remaining 5-6% of his pitch usage went to a firm changeup, a similar pitch mix to Spencer Strider, who found it important to develop a curveball over the offseason.

When Ynoa made his 2024 debut in spring training, his fastball averaged just under 94 mph, something that could have been just spring ramp-up, delayed by a sore shoulder earlier in camp, or could have shown that he’s not fully back from the Tommy John surgery from 18 months prior.

Anderson, meanwhile, has less time to ‘figure it out’, as the timing of his operation (April 2023) means he’s not expected back on the mound in competitive action until the second half of this year. He flashed three pitches in 2021, highlighted by his stellar changeup, although his third pitch was a curveball that graded out poorly from a run value perspective.

Reportedly, Anderson’s been working on his mechanics during his rehab, trying to incorporate his lower body more for power generation, as well as slightly adjusting his arm slot, which was very high over-the-top in the past.

He’s a big game pitcher that’s been able to succeed at the highest level and the biggest moments, but he’ll face a shorter ramp up than others for the 2025 season, owing to his projected second-half debut this year.

There’s other options in the organization – the Braves have led baseball in financial commitments to pitching prospects in the draft over the last few years. It’s unknown whether Atlanta’s planning on changing the publicly-stated timeline to get them to the majors in light of Strider’s injury and the team’s greater projected need for major-league pitching in 2025.

Once the farm system has a few weeks of starts under their belts, we’ll dive into prospect performances to look and evaluate how the recent additions to the organization are doing and if there’s any realistic adjustments to be had to their timelines.