Phillies Unveils how to Systematically  use the Impact of Free Agency or  Signing for a Turnaround Season

 

 

Phillies Unveils how to Systematically  use the Impact of Free Agency or  Signing for a Turnaround Season
The Philadelphia Phillies re-signed right-hander Aaron Nola to a seven-year, $172 million contract, marking the first significant transaction of the offseason. That is the 11th-highest total value contract ever given to a pitcher – for a guy who has been durable, yet has a 4.09 ERA over the last three seasons.

When Dave Dombrowski wants a player, he typically gets him, and Nola has been crucial to the Phillies’ recent success. We’ll see how Nola’s contract affects the rest of the market, but it’s possible that the price for pitching will be even higher than expected, forcing some teams to hunt for pitching help through trades or settle for the second- and third-tier free agents available.

We’ll see how Nola’s contract affects the rest of the market, but it’s possible that the price for pitching will be even higher than expected, forcing some teams to hunt for pitching help through trades or settle for the second- and third-tier starters available in free agency.

Now that the Phillies have made their big offseason move, let’s look at what the other 29 teams might do to win the winter. This is a fun activity similar to putting together a jigsaw puzzle.

 

 

Because we can only use a player once – after all, only one team will land Shohei Ohtani – it’s all about getting everything to fit while staying within realistic payroll constraints, and a reminder that teams need backup plans to their backup plans. We’ll find homes for the top 25 free agents from Kiley McDaniel’s top 50 list, as well as make a couple deals.

We’ll take the easy way out and put Ohtani on the Dodgers. That’s the favorite bet in Vegas betting circles, but it’s also the rational choice. Nobody knows where Ohtani wants to play, but the Dodgers have won 100 games in each of the last three seasons and have made the playoffs 11 times in a row. If Ohtani is fed up with losing in Anaheim, he should take I-5 north.

The Dodgers have been preparing for an Ohtani run for several years. Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman are the only players they have signed beyond 2025, and both have tax rates of less than $30 million per season, despite the fact that the AAV for the top players is currently approaching $30 million. According to FanGraphs, their current expected payroll entering the offseason is $142 million, which is tied for 15th with the Rockies, so they have plenty of room to spend big. During his tenure, Andrew Friedman has usually avoided long-term contracts, but, like Betts and Freeman, he will make exceptions for superstars. Ohtani is the biggest star in baseball.

(And since Ohtani won’t improve the rotation for 2024, the Dodgers will surely sign or trade for a starter or two. Severino, who had a 6.65 ERA for the Yankees, appears to be one of the Dodgers’ reclamation efforts.)

Hey, we said we’d win the winter, didn’t we? Buster Olney recently stated on Michael Kay’s radio show that Soto will be “100%” traded. On the Yes Network, Jeff Passan went over the Padres’ budget problem and stated that “if you want a payroll of $200 million, as the Padres would like to do for next season, Juan Soto simply can’t be a part of it.” Alden Gonzalez summarized all of the Soto trade rumors from the general managers’ meetings. The Yankees, Mets, Cubs, and Red Sox are the betting favorites to sign Soto, but while those teams are focused on acquiring Ohtani, the Mariners may be able to sneak in here. Remember that Jerry Dipoto and A.J. Preller have done a number of deals in the past.

Woo, Marlowe, and Berroa give the Padres three major league ready players, including two potential starting pitchers (which the Padres really need with Snell, Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo, and Nick Martinez being free agents). Ford is regarded as a top-100 potential. No, it’s not what the Padres gave up to get Soto, but it’s a good haul for a year of Soto.

After ending their playoff drought in 2022, the Mariners played it careful last offseason, allowing the Rangers to pass them. They must get outside of their comfort zone and think big. So why stop there? Snell is from Seattle, and while the hometown advantage is often exaggerated, Snell was a great Ken Griffey Jr. fan growing up. Furthermore, while everyone acts as if Seattle is strong in pitching but bad on offense, such evaluation ignores what T-Mobile Park does to offense: In 2023, the Mariners were sixth in the majors in road OPS, while its rotation was 12th in ERA and OPS allowed.

Yes, the Mariners’ payroll would be significantly greater than it has ever been, but Soto’s estimated $33 million contract is only a one-year penalty. With a still-deep farm system that includes three first-round picks in 2023, they’ve set themselves in position to make a trade like this. Consider a lineup led by Soto and Julio Rodriguez, as well as a rotation of Snell, Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, and Bryce Miller (with Robbie Ray perhaps returning in the second half).