The Phillies want to extend Wheeler and increase pitching depth
Phillies pitchers and catchers will open Spring Training in Clearwater, Fla., on Feb. 14, taking the 100-foot trek from the clubhouse at BayCare Ballpark to Carpenter Complex for the first official workout.
Right now, it is almost entirely the same group that finished the NLCS at Citizens Bank Park in October.
It will be surprising if it stays that way.
“As far as we’re concerned, our No. 1 goal was to get [Aaron] Nola back and then improve around the edges,” Phillies manager Rob Thomson said during a media availability Wednesday. “There’s still a lot of players out there, so we’ll see what happens.”
The Phillies signed Nola to a seven-year, $172 million contract in November. They have been quiet since then, other than a surprisingly spirited pursuit of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who signed a $325 million contract with the Dodgers. The Phillies made an exception for Yamamoto, 25, because of his talent and age, but sources have maintained they have no plans to pivot and pursue remaining big free agents on the market, including Blake Snell and Josh Hader.
Of course, the longer players linger on the market the more desperate things might become.
But sources said late last month the priority this spring is signing Zack Wheeler to a contract extension.
That has not changed.
“I hope we can,” Nola said Wednesday. “I really hope we can. I’ve enjoyed my time with him a lot. I mean, he’s one of the best pitchers in the league. He’s one of the most humble as well. How he goes about his business, it’s very cool to see being right next to him.
“I really hope we can have him for longer. We need him a lot. He’s done so much for this team and this organization.”
Wheeler, who has one more year under contract, will not come cheap. Nor should he. His 19.6 bWAR and 19.3 fWAR the past four seasons are the best in baseball. His 2.42 ERA in the postseason is the sixth best in MLB history (minimum 10 starts).
Wheeler, 33, is three years older than Nola. If he signed a seven-year contract like Nola, he would be 41 when it expires. It is not impossible to see that happening, considering Wheeler’s talent, accomplishments and importance, but Wheeler also could sign a shorter-term deal with a higher AAV (average annual value).
Max Scherzer, 39, signed a three-year, $130 million contract that runs through 2024 ($43.33 million AAV). Justin Verlander, 40, signed a two-year, $86.7 million deal that runs through ’24 ($43.33 million AAV).
Pitchers like Jacob deGrom ($37 million AAV), Gerrit Cole ($36 million) and Stephen Strasburg ($35 million AAV) signed longer-term deals with an AAV below Scherzer and Verlander. There is no reason to think Wheeler can’t match or even surpass deGrom and Cole in AAV. Perhaps he will push Scherzer and Verlander, too, depending on the length of the deal.
But the Phillies will have Wheeler on the mound in 2024, regardless of how contract negotiations go this spring.
Still, Philadelphia wants more pitching depth. It is the team’s other priority.
“You’re going to need eight or nine starters over the course of a year,” Thomson said. “Most teams do, anyway. So that rotation depth is really important.”
Reliever Craig Kimbrel signed a one-year deal with Baltimore, but the Phillies have not replaced him in the bullpen. When asked if he believes the Phillies need to sign a veteran reliever to take Kimbrel’s spot, Thomson said, “We’ve got a lot of that now. If nothing happened, I’d be pretty happy with where we’re at. We still have [Connor Brogdon] and [Andrew Bellatti] and [Yunior Marte] and [Luis F. Ortiz] down there who have helped us out in the past. I do like our depth coming out of the bullpen.”
It is a group that also includes José Alvarado, Seranthony Domínguez, Matt Strahm, Jeff Hoffman and Gregory Soto. Thomson said he wants to see Orion Kerkering win a job this spring, but it really would take something extraordinary for him not to make the team.
“He’s way up on my list as far as his talent level and where he stands in that bullpen,” Thomson said.
The Phillies said they are not pursuing a prototypical fourth outfielder, which could take playing time from Johan Rojas and Brandon Marsh. The Phils want Rojas to play well and play almost every day. If he struggles, he could see time in Triple-A.
If that happens, the Phillies would be short in the outfield.
“We still have Cristian Pache, we have [Jake] Cave,” Thomson said. “Again, there’s a whole bunch of players out there on the market. A lot of things happen right before Spring Training and that’s why our Spring Training [non-roster] invites are down because we know that people are going to fall out of the sky and want to sign someplace.”
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