These Unproven Players must Step up for Nuggets to repeat as Champs
Last season through 42 games, the Denver Nuggets were 29-13. This season through 42 games, they’re 28-14. And while Denver’s starting lineup is identical to a year ago, the “new guys” on its bench must prove themselves in the postseason for the Nuggets to win the West and repeat as NBA champions.
Bruce Brown was sensational on both ends in last year’s playoffs, and his departure to Indiana left a chasm in Denver’s second unit. The players hoping to replicate his postseason success are talented, certainly, but almost all are unproven.
Christian Braun, the second-year 6-foot-6 guard who won a national title at Kansas, has seen his usage rate rise to 17.4 from 13.0 last season, his scoring jump from 4.7 to 7.8 and his field-goal attempts rise about 65 percent.
Peyton Watson, the second-year, long-limbed forward from UCLA, provides impressive two-way play:
And perhaps the biggest story on Denver’s bench is the resurgence of veteran point guard Reggie Jackson, who played 18 minutes in last year’s playoffs but has played in every game for Denver (and played a lot, averaging 23.2 minutes per game).
During its NBA Finals run, Denver relied heavily on its starters, as most teams do in the playoffs. Only Brown played more than 20 minutes per game off the bench (26.2), and behind him was Jeff Green (another player who left this offseason) at 17.2 minutes per game. This was made possible by Brown doing a little bit of everything — defending, shooting, connecting and rebounding.
But this season, Denver doesn’t have that one do-it-all reserve, so Braun, Watson, Jackson and maybe even rookie Julian Strawther will all need to contribute with the playoff minutes they will undoubtedly receive.
If they can, and head coach Michael Malone can skillfully stagger their minutes with Denver’s starters, the Nuggets might be on their way to a repeat championship.
As a collective, Denver doesn’t look all too different from last season; it finished the season 15th in defensive rating and fifth in offensive rating. Defensively, Denver was a bit better than that number suggests. The team essentially stopped trying on defense at the beginning of March to preserve energy for a playoff run, but from the beginning of the season until March 7, it was 12th in defense.
This season, Denver is 12th in defensive rating, seventh in offensive rating and sixth in net rating. We’re not exactly sure how that math works, but we won’t question it.
Denver plays essentially the same way, too. Nikola Jokic is the offensive hub, Jamal Murray provides excellent secondary ball-handling and scoring, Michael Porter Jr. and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope hit shots and play defense and Aaron Gordon does a bit of all that.
So while the Clippers, Timberwolves and Thunder made strides this offseason and completely transformed into contenders, Denver’s core and play style remain the same — even though its bench looks different. Have any of those teams surpassed the Nuggets, though? We’re not willing to go that far.
Understandably, fans are drawn to what is new and flashy — and all three of those teams deserve the praise they’re receiving — but don’t be fooled: Denver is still the team to beat in the West and should be the favorites against anybody it runs into.
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