Field view: Elly de la Cruz home run vs. Milwaukee

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Elly De La Cruz on his two-home run game

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Brewers vs. Reds Highlights

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Elly De La Cruz’s inside-the-park home run (2)

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Brewers vs. Reds Highlights

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Elly De La Cruz on hitting two home runs and more

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Elly De La Cruz’s solo home run (3)

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Mets vs. Reds Highlights

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David Bell reacts to the Reds’ 10-8 victory

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Tyler Stephenson plates two with a double

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Over at ESPN they unveiled their 2024 Major League Baseball predictions. Doing so two weeks into the regular season is certainly a choice, but ESPN asked their panel of baseball writers to offer up some things that they think could happen this season. There were some hot takes in there, and the one that Jeff Passan made about Cincinnati Reds shortstop Elly De La Cruz certainly qualifies.

What was the hot take that Passan put out there? He predicts that Elly De La Cruz will hit 30 home runs and steal 80 bases this year. No one has ever done that in a single season before.

There’s a lot to unravel there, but let’s start with the home runs. 30 home runs in today’s game is more rare than it was from the 1995-2005 era, but it’s not at all an uncommon thing. Since 1988 there have been 955 player seasons with 30 or more home runs. Why did I choose 1988? Well, that’s the last time any one had a season with 80 stolen bases. In 1988 both Rickey Henderson (93 steals) and Vince Coleman (81 steals) topped the mark. A few players have come close since then, not none have gotten there. Ronald Acuna Jr. stole 73 bases last season and hit 41 home runs. He’s the only player to steal more than 65 bases and hit more than 14 home runs in that time frame.

When it comes to the tools, Elly De La Cruz certainly has the ones required to hit 30 home runs and steal 80 bases. He’s got some of the best raw power in baseball. He’s also one of, if not the fastest players in baseball. And the rules have been altered recently to encourage players to steal bases more frequently, too.

The Reds shortstop is out to a hot start, even if a week ago there were people on the internet spouting that he should be sent to Triple-A. He’s currently hitting .318/.375/.659 and has three home runs and six stolen bases in 12 games played. It’s incredibly unlikely he keeps up his high average (and thus higher on-base percentage) without making more contact than he has this season to this point. But that’s a different story that isn’t directly related to his home runs or his steals.

It is, though, indirectly related. The more contact he makes, the more home runs he’s likely to hit. And the more contact he makes, the more likely he will find more hits and get on base. And of course, the more often he’s on base the more opportunities he will have to steal bases.

If one of the sportsbooks were offering that as a prop bet, you’d be a fool to take it. But as Kevin Malone famously once said: If someone gives you 10,000-to-1 on anything, you take it