Why did the Red Sox acquire Tyler O’Neill — and what it means for the outfield
The Red Sox have traded for the second time in four days. After trading Alex Verdugo to the Yankees for three pitchers on Tuesday, Breslow struck again on Friday, acquiring outfielder Tyler O’Neill from the Cardinals in exchange for pitchers Nick Robertson and Victor Santos.
Breslow didn’t address the trade publicly like he did after dealing Verdugo, but after conversations with multiple people with knowledge of the Red Sox’ thinking, this much is clear: Boston views O’Neill as an upside play with both his bat and his glove and — barring an unforeseen move later in the winter — is likely done when it comes to outfield moves. With the left-handed Verdugo gone and the right-handed O’Neill in, Breslow achieved some platoon balance that was lacking with Adam Duvall (and Justin Turner) hitting free agency.
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O’Neill, 28, has played 477 games for the Cardinals over the last six seasons, hitting.248 with 78 home runs and a.776 OPS. He’s also a two-time Gold Glove winner in 2020 and 2021, and he had a breakout offensive season in 2021 (34 homers,.912 OPS) before settling back into a.707 OPS in 168 games across two limited seasons in 2022 and 2023. He, like Verdugo, is a year away from free agency, but is expected to be much cheaper. In comparison to Verdugo’s forecasted $9.2 million arbitration salary, O’Neill is expected to earn $5.5 million, according to MLBTradeRumors.
The Red Sox had been looking for a right-handed hitting outfielder with the ability to play center field for some time, partly due to concerns that top prospect Ceddanne Rafaela — already a pristine defender in center — still has a long way to go in terms of offensive development, particularly plate discipline. The addition of O’Neill makes it more likely, but not guaranteed, that Rafaela will open the season in Triple-A, while his versatility may earn him a place out of spring training. Adding O’Neill, who has dealt with several injuries over the last five seasons, provides the Sox with some protection for Rafaela while still giving the top prospect a legitimate shot to contribute in 2024.
The Red Sox view O’Neill as capable of playing all three outfield positions, according to sources, though the exact outfield deployment will be determined by manager Alex Cora in spring training (as well as any more moves on the positional side of things). O’Neill’s platoon splits aren’t ridiculous, as he has a career OPS of .816 against lefties and .765 against righties, but he’ll clearly protect lefties Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu and Masataka Yoshida against opposing southpaws.
On Wednesday, Cora said he expected Abreu to play a lot in right field with Duran splitting time between center and left field and Rafaela, if in the majors, as a center fielder with the ability to mix into the infield. The defensively-limited Yoshida is exclusively limited to left field and will almost surely get more at-bats at designated hitter in 2024. It’s easy to envision O’Neill seeing lots of time in left (his primary position) and covering center if Rafaela is not ready; although he hasn’t played right field since 2019, the Red Sox envision him getting some run out there as well. Rob Refsnyder remains on the roster as a bench option who is capable of hitting lefties; his status on the roster will be determined by health and Rafaela’s readiness.
The O’Neill trade moves the Red Sox closer to a complete picture in terms of position players. The club believes an outfield group of Abreu, Duran, O’Neill, Rafaela, Refsnyder and Yoshida is plenty capable, albeit somewhat inexperienced. They are now less likely to pursue a big right-handed outfield bat (like Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Teoscar Hernández or Jorge Soler on the free agent market) but could still try to add a righty who can DH while mixing in at first base (with second base another hole to fill). If the Sox believe Adam Duvall can cover some first base (a position he played early in his career), he makes a lot of sense as another option to join the mix. At first glance, adding someone like O’Neill for a year made more sense for the Sox than signing someone like Gurriel or Hernández who will command a three or four-year contract. With Abreu, Duran, Rafaela and Yoshida all under control for a while and top prospect Roman Anthony on the way, it doesn’t appear Breslow wanted to block any of his young players with a long-term deal. The only chance something like that goes back on the table is if a major trade for starting pitching requires someone like Abreu, Duran or Rafaela to be dealt.
The Cardinals faced an outfield surplus entering the winter and their president of baseball operations, John Mozeliak, all but put out a classified ad with O’Neill’s face on it earlier this week when he said during an MLB Network Radio appearance that he was listening on offers for him. That statement, mixed with a down year in 2023 and O’Neill’s pending free agent status, meant the Cards were never going to get much for him despite other clubs — including Kansas City and Seattle — reportedly showing interest in him.
Santos, a 23-year-old organizational depth piece who didn’t pitch in 2023 due to injury, is a throw-in who was actually a minor league free agent who re-signed with the Red Sox earlier this winter. St. Louis’ end of the deal is all about Robertson, a reliever who came to Boston as one of the two pieces obtained from the Dodgers for Kiké Hernández at the deadline.
The Red Sox believe Robertson has real upside — and he showed flashes during a strong stretch in September in the majors — but Breslow’s recent moves made for a crowded bunch in the bullpen. Trade additions Isaiah Campbell, Greg Weissert and Justin Slaten will all compete for middle relief spots in spring training along with Zack Kelly, Mauricio Llovera and Bryan Mata. The Red Sox once again project to have Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin and John Schreiber at the back of their bullpen with versatile options Josh Winckowski, Garrett Whitlock and Tanner Houck potentially factoring into the mix as well.
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