Youth, injury, and the dangers of burnout Jokic, Nikola

 

 

Nikola Jokic, Austin Rivers, Facundo Campazzo, Will Barton, Aaron Gordon

In April 2022, your starting five will face the Golden State Warriors in the first round. Overall, it was a fairly tough series that lasted five games, with the final three games being nail-biters. A stunning accomplishment given that the bench included a combustible Demarcus Cousins as backup center.

Overall, the 2021-22 NBA season could be Nikola Jokic’s most significant in the league. The weight of carrying that Nuggets team was enormous, and the manner in which he achieved it was even more impressive. By sheer power of will, that Nuggets club won 48 games. Simply surviving and leading that club to a competitive position in the standings proved something exceptional in Jokic: the capacity to improve everyone around him, regardless of on-paper talent.

While everything Jokic accomplished in 2022 garnered him a (deserved) MVP nod, there is a warning that the Denver Nuggets must heed. It is straightforward. Learn from the mistakes of 2022. Do not expect Nikola Jokic to carry your club as much as he did during that pivotal pre-title season.

Many have accused me of being overly pessimistic about the Nuggets’ chances this season. That’s understandable. That perception is understandable, and if that is how I come across, it must signify something. While doing some soul searching, I’ve been wondering why I’ve had such a different perspective on this season than most Nuggets media members. After all, the Nuggets just won their first NBA championship and are 8-1 this season (the team is 10-4 as of this writing). However, in light of the most recent two games, it occurred to me why I had some reservations about the Nuggets’ approach this season.

 

 

Nikola Jokic could be on his way to a major burnout, à la 2022. Not wearing Jokic out, but mentally stressing him by having to carry the team once more.

Before you object to what I’m saying, please hear me out! I’m heading there for a reason.

The signs were up prior to the New Orleans Pelicans game. On the court, Jokic was a little shorter-tempered and clearly more irritable. Jokic, on the other hand, played out of his mind against the Pelicans, delivering a stat line that baffled even my jaded mind in a strange loss. These things, in my opinion, were completely represented in the Nuggets’ loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers and, more importantly, in their triumph over the Detroit Pistons. It reminds me of Jokic during the 2022 season. Weary, stressed, and a little grumpy. Folks, we’re only 14 games into the season. Getting thrown out after the Cleveland game said more than anything else.

While it is true that having three games this early in the season with Tony Brothers as the main official hasn’t helped Jokic’s mood on the court, things have been strange elsewhere. With the Nuggets relying on a collection of first and second year players, the Nuggets’ margin for error (cushion, if you will) has vanished. Jokic was ejected from the game against the Pistons (along with Malone), forcing the team’s relatively young backcourt to step up.

Yes, the Pistons are tied for the worst team in the NBA with the Washington Wizards, but the win was almost remarkable given how many young players saw action (and held their own). Reggie Jackson, thank God.

The Nuggets’ (Jokic’s) concern can be attributed to Murray’s absence for the last seven games. Yet, beneath it all, the Nuggets are lacking that margin for error this season. By proxy, Jokic must enter 2022 mode and lead the team. Jokic going HAM might boost his gaudy stats and excite MVP voters, but if you’re a Denver Nuggets fan, this is not what you want. There is a serious risk of burnout if Jokic is overused again for the sake of youth development.

The return of Jamal Murray obviously has the potential to improve matters. I’m wary of the Nuggets’ strategy to this season because of the time spent to rookie development and the window for a championship, and I believe this has put undue pressure on the starting unit to keep a championship team with a relatively inexperienced back end of the roster. When Jamal returns, the starting lineup reverts to being as lethal as the starters of the Boston Celtics.

I’m not going to go over my concerns about the youth vs. competing difficulty again. However, I believe the Nuggets should be cautious not to push Nikola Jokic into the ground for the sake of progress. When you invest as much as the team has in young players, the side effect (if you want to compete) is that you tax your starting lineup… specifically your elite players in whom you’ve invested millions. It serves no use for them to become exhausted. The squad must consider the difficulties raised here and figure out way to avoid requiring Jokic to go full 2022.