Fresh off a perfect 16-0 campaign that ended with a national championship, the Indiana Hoosiers enter the 2026 season with expectations as high as ever. Curt Cignetti has reloaded the roster through the transfer portal while bringing back several important contributors on both sides of the ball, making Indiana one of the teams expected to contend for another national title.
Still, despite an impressive 27-2 record through his first two seasons in Bloomington, Cignetti and the Hoosiers did not crack the preseason AP Top 5. When the Associated Press released its initial Top 25 on Monday, Indiana landed at No. 6.
On the surface, being ranked sixth hardly qualifies as a major slight. But recent history suggests that defending national champions left outside the preseason Top 5 have faced an uphill battle the following season.
History isn’t on Indiana’s side
Since the beginning of the College Football Playoff era, only three defending national champions have opened the following season outside the AP preseason Top 5. Going back to 2008, there have been only four such instances.
None of those teams finished the season ranked.
Michigan entered the 2024 season after winning the national championship but fell to 7-5. LSU followed its 2019 title by going 5-5 during the COVID-shortened 2020 season. Auburn went 7-5 in 2011 after winning the 2010 championship, while LSU finished 7-5 in 2008 after capturing the 2007 national title.
That is a trend Indiana certainly would prefer not to follow.
The Hoosiers, however, have several reasons to believe they can break the pattern.
Cignetti has already defied expectations
Some degree of regression is almost inevitable after winning a national championship. NFL departures can strip a roster of elite talent, assistant coaches are often hired away for bigger opportunities, and maintaining the same level of production from one season to the next is extremely difficult.
Indiana experienced some of those challenges this offseason, particularly with players moving on to the NFL. The Hoosiers also enter 2026 with a significantly different roster than the one that delivered the championship.
But one major advantage remains intact: Cignetti has retained his entire coaching staff.
Both coordinators are back, giving Indiana complete continuity on the coaching side. In the modern college football landscape, that is increasingly unusual. Championship-winning staffs are routinely broken apart as assistants receive head-coaching opportunities or lucrative offers elsewhere.
Indiana avoided that disruption.
That continuity could prove especially valuable as the Hoosiers attempt to replace departing talent and integrate a new group of players.
More importantly, Cignetti has repeatedly demonstrated that he is comfortable operating when expectations and outside opinions are working against him. His transformation of Indiana into a national contender has been one of the most remarkable turnarounds in recent college football history.
Even after winning a national championship and posting a 27-2 record across two seasons, the Hoosiers still appear to have something to prove.
Indiana has the roster and schedule to make another run
The combination of returning talent, transfer-portal additions and coaching continuity gives Indiana a strong foundation entering the new season.
The schedule will present challenges, as every championship defense does, but the overall slate gives the Hoosiers a legitimate opportunity to remain in the national championship conversation. If Indiana can handle the difficult stretches and avoid unexpected losses, another postseason run is well within reach.
That is why the No. 6 preseason ranking may ultimately mean very little.
The historical precedent is certainly worth noting. Every defending champion since 2008 that opened outside the AP Top 5 eventually finished the season unranked. But history does not account for the unique circumstances surrounding Cignetti’s program.
Indiana has a proven head coach, an intact coaching staff, a talented roster and a transfer class capable of replacing significant losses.
Now the Hoosiers have an opportunity to do what they have done repeatedly under Cignetti: prove the doubters wrong.
If Indiana puts all of those pieces together, the Hoosiers could become the team that finally breaks the recent trend — turning a preseason Top-5 omission into another championship-caliber season rather than another unexpected fall from the rankings.
